Tour de Ski Predictions

It seems that many people here have taken a keen interest in the racing/World Cup aspect of the sport so I thought I'd create a thread where we can post our Tour predictions for men and/or women. Just for fun and bragging right. The scoring will be for correct picks: 10pts-1st, 8pts-2nd, 6pts-3rd, 4pts-4th, 2pts-5th, and 1pt for having your skier in the top 5 but not in the right placing. Here are my picks...

Men
1st-Petter Northug-Apart from his Davos disaster he's been incredible this season, he has both the sprinting prowess and distance capabilities to win this year.
2nd-Lucas Bauer-He's not invincible like last year, his lack of sprinting will let him slip up.
3rd-Alexander Legkov-A tough fighter that doesn't give in, he had the fastest time climbing up the Alpe Cermis in the inaugural Tour.
4th-Marcus Hellner-I just have a hunch that he'll do good, don't ask me why
5th-Devon Kerhsaw-I'm Canadian, so is he, I have to give him a chance. Also, he's in the form of his life right now.

Notables that could spoil the party...Sundy, Soedegren, and Piller Cottrer

Women
1st-Aino Kaisa Saarinen-After skiing in the shadows of Kiutinen for the past couple years, she has shown that Kiutinen isn't the only female on the team that can dominate the world's best. She's the complete package and is a threat in any race she enters
2nd-Charlotte Kalla-Like Saarinen, she can win a race at any distance, but I don't think her form will match that of Saarinen when the Tour start.
3rd-Virpi Kuitunen-An uncharacteristically inconsistant season for Kiutinen so far, she will pull out the stop in the Tour but won't be able to over take her teammate.
4th-Therese Johaug-With her slight frame, expect her to glide up Alpe Cermis and over come a few of those who started in front of her assuming she doesn't loose too much time in the prior stages to the other favorites.
5th-Petra Majdic-Her domination of the sprints this season won't change when the Tour starts. I feel her main weakness is when they go up the Alpe Cermis as she is arguably the biggest body on the womens side of the tour and all that extra bulk with feel like dead weight as the ascent starts.

Notable that could spoil the party...Kowalczyk, Bjørgen, and Follis.

To help you out with who is and who isn't skiing in the Tour, take a look at this link http://www.tour-de-ski.com/fr/athletes.html.

Here are my picks for the Tour de Ski, based on very subjective
examination of their strengths so far this year:

Men
1- Axel Teichmann (GER)
2- Sami Jauhojaervi (FIN)
3- Lukas Bauer (CZE)
4- Eldar Roenning (NOR)
5- Dario Cologna (ITA)

Women
1- Justyna Kowalczyk (POL)
2- Virpi Kuitunen (FIN)
3- Kristin Stoermer Steira (NOR)
4- Aino-Kaisa Saarinen (FIN)
5- Ariana Follis (ITA)
____
Rock

Unfortunately, Kalla has just got struck by a cold and will miss Tour
de Ski.

/ Niklas

doogiski wrote:
2nd-Charlotte Kalla-Like Saarinen, she can win a race at any distance,
but I don't think her form will match that of Saarinen when the Tour
start.

For those of you interested...

http://www.skitrax.com/index.php?mod...ompage _id=79


I can´t win, but those from US or Canada may have a shot.

Deadline is today at 6PM ET.

Nice idea doogiski

Women:
1. Justyna Kowalczyk - I'm from Poland (we haven't any polish forum
like this and rec.nordic.skiing group is something really good for
me) so I hope that she will be the first. She's not in best form
yet, but she's definitly one of the best woman skier. Maybe it will be
her time
2. Virpi Kuitunen - she is still stronger and stronger, it won't be
anything strange if she will win
3. Marit Bjoergen - solid form, she will be high in final results
4. Aino Kaisa Saarinen - really good begining of the season, now she's
still good, but is she really as good as someone who can win whole
Tour de Ski?
5. Therese Johaug - I really like her dynamic style, it won't be her
Tour de Ski yet ,she will win maybe next year, maybe in 2010/2011, but
already now she will be really good

Men - it will be fantastic Tour de Ski, it's really hard to choose 5
names
1. Petter Northug - although once in Davos he wasn't as strong as
before I think that he's main candidate to 1st place. He can win so
many races - sprints, long distances.
2. Tor Arne Hetland - really solid skier, always at top places, maybe
he will even fight for victory in overall standing?
3. Sami Jauhojaervi - someone from Finland again at the top in men
races? why not now, Sami is strong
4. Lukas Bauer - he isn't as good as he was last year, but during
whole Tour he probably will be at main group during every stage so in
overall standing he will be high.
5. Martin Sundby - he isn't a kind of skier who can win sprint race,
but at long distances he is very good this year.

I can also say that maybe Angerer will back on top during this Tour.
Another names? - Teichmann, Heikkinen (young but good), Nousiainen,
Cologna, maybe Piller Cottrer and Di Centa (but I think that they will
be at 7-10 places, they aren't very strong in classic style).

Rominger, great game, but with 2 weak points. First - that we can't
win anything because we're not from USA or Canada
And second - I'm sure that everybody will choose only stars - who
will choose Hajkova, Tiagay, Krezelok, Razym, Thor Olsen when it's
possible to have team with main candidates to 1st place only ? For
sure many teams are very very similar. Game could be more interesing
with rules like this: you can choose only one skier from places 1-5 in
World Cup standings, one from places 6-15, one from 16-25, and one
from 26-last, it's not my idea, it's from other games like this.
Harder to choose, but more interesting? - I think that yes
I'm waiting for tomorrow's morning, it's great that Tour will begin

Yes, excellent idea. My picks:

men's overall
1. Teichmann (the only all-rounder in good form right now, and well
ahead of his teammates Sommerfeldt and Angerer)
2. Hetland (just too big to win on the final climb)
3. Cologna (too young to win it all this year, but good at all
distances)
4. Northug (great at any freestyle distance, not good enough at any
classical distance)
5. Ronning (not quite good enough in freestyle to win it all)
North Americans: No Americans are entered in the Tour, but I can see
both Babikov and Kershaw in the top 15, with Kershaw's sprinting
skills pushing him up into the top 10.

women's overall
1. Saarinen (the best all-round racer right now, with enough guts to
power up the final climb)
2. Bjoergen (also a great all-rounder, but just slightly behind
Saarinen right now, and gimpy)
3. Kowalczyk (great at all distances and both techniques, but prone to
tactical errors that screw up her chances)
4. Kuitunen ('06-'07 Tour champion, but still on the upward arc toward
World Championships form)
5. Shevchenko (because she loves the Tour, and the final climb - but
lacks the classical chops to win)
North Americans: Sara Renner will finish in the top 15 (no
Americans are entered).

(At the risk of linkbaiting, I have more on the Nordic Commentary
Project blog: http://nordiccommentaryproject.blogs...r-de-whee.html)

Originally Posted by doogiski

It seems that many people here have taken a keen interest in the racing/World Cup aspect of the sport so I thought I'd create a thread where we can post our Tour predictions for men and/or women. Just for fun and bragging right. The scoring will be for correct picks: 10pts-1st, 8pts-2nd, 6pts-3rd, 4pts-4th, 2pts-5th, and 1pt for having your skier in the top 5 but not in the right placing.

Well now that the tour is done for another year and I have to say that this year was the best year so far. On the women's side we weren't sure who was going to take it until 300m from the end. On the men's side two 22 year olds were #1-2. Here are the final standings. Too bad there were only four of us that did this, maybe more next year.

1st Place - Tassava

Mens Points - 3 (Cologna, Teichmann, and Northug)
Womens Points - 3 (Saarinen, Kowalcyzk, and Kuitunen)
Total - 6

2nd Place - rock.ouimet

Mens Points - 2 (Teichmann and Cologna)
Womens Points - (Kowalczyk, Saarinen and Kuitunen)

3rd place - Doogiski and Daniel

Doogiski

Mens Points - 1 (Northug)
Womens Points - 3 (Saarinen, Kuitunen, and Majdic)

Daniel

Mens Points - (Northug)
Womens Points - (Kowalcyzk, Kuitunen, and Saarinen)

Next races are in two weeks when the World Cup visit Canada and takes a look at the Olympic trails. A big congrats to Ivan Babikov who was the fastest man up the Alpe Cermis and won the climb this year!