An exercise in handicapping

Terje Mathisen wrote:
wrote:
Gene Goldenfeld wrote:
"Anders" wrote:
(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)
Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes
with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at
80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than
reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago .

Gene

Someone handy with Perl or similar could parse the pages he

http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/tor...=cross_country

And plot out the height:weight ratios.

Terje, feel like doing an "exercise in caching"?

No caching involved, except possibly by the perl http libraries.

I took a look, the main problem is that you first need to traverse 7-8
index pages, then follow the links to all 353 athletes.

This is hard to do without being classified (and banned) as a robot by
yahoo.com :-(

Terje

PS. All the stats are in feet,inches,pounds but that just adds a bit
more uncertainty.

I just wget'ed about 50 athletes pages.
There is a zip file with them at http://arbitrary.org/tmp.zip if you
feel like having a look, I'm lousy at regex stuff.

Joseph

Jan Gerrit Klok wrote:
(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 =3D weight in kg" tends to apply=
to
99% of elite skiers...)

I need to put on some weight then. 1m94/81kg right now. In mountainbiking
not an excuse to lose to anyone, but I can see I'm too skinny now to deli=
ver
he required upper body power at racing level.

On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A
guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another
guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27.
10min/5km, really? Wow. That will be quite hard to beat on a bicycle! Sure
it's a full 5km? Most pro skating races seem to get slower finish times?

Enjoy!

J

The 5km must be incorrect. But the guy is still very fast. He was 3
minutes behind J=F8rgen Aukland (Marcialonga winner) at a classic race
earlier this year at the same location, but with a slightly different
more demanding loop.

Joseph

Thanks, but I already know I'm at least 3kg overweight (167cm - 107 = 60kg
or 132lb) :-(

Bob

From: "Anders"
....
(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)

....
Anders

Gene Goldenfeld kirjoitti:


(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)

Is this really true? Where does it come from?

I have to admit the "formula" is something I once made up, but it has
always struck me how well the vast majority of true elite, Olympic
calibre skiers fits in it. The exceptions are typically younger guys
who will add some muscle mass and sprinters who sometimes can resemble
icehockey players (a case in point would be Svartedal, 181/82!). OTOH
in the current Norwgian top Estil, 188/83, is obviously too heavy and
Hjelmeset (180/69) clearly borders on being too skinny...


I wonder if it changes
with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at
80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than
reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago .

Well, I'm somehow under the impression that there'll be some degree of
unavoidable increase of fat percentage and decrease of lean muscle mass
(from assumed ideal elite athlete levels) and that the degree can be
influenced by how much and how one trains to keep in shape.

In any case, my tenet is that don't fix it, if you feel good in it. I'm
a frightening (for a skier) 178/65 (and I suffer for it, too, on those
DP stretches), but heck, I'm not going to put the carriage in front of
the horse and start spending valuable skiing or running time in the
gym!


Anders

In any case, my tenet is that don't fix it, if you feel good in it. I'm
a frightening (for a skier) 178/65 (and I suffer for it, too, on those
DP stretches), but heck, I'm not going to put the carriage in front of
the horse and start spending valuable skiing or running time in the
gym!

6 of one, half dozen of the other. At the race I did last weekend,
there were a bunch of us who all had more or less the same finish
times. We kept passing each other back and forth. Me with my 193cm
103kg whizzing by them effortlessly on the DP sections, them with their
skinnier builds blowing by me on the climbs like I was going the other
way.

Until one gets into a really high level of performance as a full time
athlete, I don't think body type really matters. It's really just a
question of who trains the most effectively for the time they devote to
it, and who knows how to suffer.

On my evening drive to my ski loop, sometimes I pass a gym with big
glass windows where I can see all the folks running on treadmills and
lifiting weights presumably to loud music. It always makes me think of
the silent forest, the cold breeze, and the starry sky I will be
enjoying in a matter of minutes. It always puts a smile on my face
thinking about how much I enjoy every aspect of this sport. You won't
catch me wasting time in the gym either!

Joseph

kirjoitti:

Hmm, 2min/km slower than the winner would be about 4:30 - but can we
assume that the difference will not grow as the distance doubles?

I think the longer distance works out somewhat to my advantage (or at
least not a disadvantage!). I am used to bike rides lasting 7-21 hours
(250-540km) and 4-5 hours sounds very comfortable. The 2:10 race felt
like a sprint.

I don't doubt your general endurance, but your specific endurance may
be a factor: the less natural and relaxed your technique is and the
less times you have skied for three hours, the greater the chances that
4-5 hours is "short" enough for your efficiency to diminish and for
your weak spots to succumb to the load. You may be able to keep up a
certain level of intensity, but your pace will become slower or you may
be limited by suddenly cramping arms or abs. (This is not a prognosis,
though.)



(A bonus prediction: next year you'll have a go at sub-4.)

Promise?

Please note that I only predicted that you'll get greedy:-) OTOH
improving 1min/km for 54km in a year shouldn't be out of the question,
if you're truly bitten by the XC bug, make a 10-month plan and stay
healthy enough to stick to it.


Anders

Bob wrote:
Thanks, but I already know I'm at least 3kg overweight (167cm - 107 = 60kg
or 132lb) :-(

Bob

From: "Anders"
...
(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)

Here's the data from yahoo parsed out (excuse bad formatting!).

Terje

Natalia Baranova-Masolkina 1975-Feb-25 1.73 m 63.0 kg 31 years 109
(h-w)
Ivan Alypov 1982-Apr-19 1.78 m 68.0 kg 23 years 109
(h-w)
Elena Burukhina 1977-Sep-03 1.65 m 55.5 kg 28 years 109
(h-w)
Noureddine Bentoumi 1972-Feb-19 1.70 m 70.0 kg 34 years 100
(h-w)
Phillip Kimely Boit 1971-Dec-12 1.80 m 70.0 kg 34 years 110
(h-w)
Ilie Bria 1989-Mar-23 1.78 m 64.0 kg 16 years 113
(h-w)
Sergiu Balan 1987-Aug-15 1.78 m 52.0 kg 18 years 125
(h-w)
Alexander Batyuk 1984-Apr-27 1.80 m 74.0 kg 21 years 106
(h-w)
Ivan Bilosyuk 1984-Jan-18 1.83 m 74.5 kg 22 years 108
(h-w)
Ivan Arteev 1977-Mar-24 1.83 m 74.5 kg 28 years 108
(h-w)
Ivan Babikov 1980-Apr-07 1.73 m 68.0 kg 25 years 104
(h-w)
Seraina Boner 1982-Nov-04 1.68 m 55.0 kg 23 years 112
(h-w)
Amanda Ammar 1986-Jun-02 1.57 m 54.0 kg 19 years 103
(h-w)
Martin Bianchi 1981-Nov-02 1.75 m 71.0 kg 24 years 104
(h-w)
Esther Bottomley 1983-Aug-02 1.68 m 58.0 kg 22 years 109
(h-w)
Clare-Louise Brumley 1977-Oct-30 1.83 m 68.0 kg 28 years 114
(h-w)
Mikhail Botwinov 1967-Nov-17 1.85 m 79.5 kg 38 years 105
(h-w)
Ivan Bariakov 1983-Jun-26 1.70 m 63.0 kg 22 years 107
(h-w)
Alen Abramovic 1976-Nov-04 1.80 m 72.0 kg 29 years 108
(h-w)
Helena Balatkova Erbenova 1979-Jun-02 1.60 m 49.0 kg 26 years 111
(h-w)
Lukas Bauer 1977-Aug-18 1.80 m 72.0 kg 28 years 108
(h-w)
Laia Aubert Torrents 1986-Oct-05 1.65 m 57.0 kg 19 years 108
(h-w)
Elodie Bourgeois Pin 1982-Feb-03 1.63 m 55.0 kg 24 years 107
(h-w)
Stefanie Boehler 1981-Feb-27 1.70 m 55.0 kg 25 years 115
(h-w)
Viola Bauer 1976-Dec-13 1.68 m 60.0 kg 29 years 107
(h-w)
Tobias Angerer 1977-Dec-04 1.78 m 72.0 kg 28 years 105
(h-w)
Bruno Carrara 1977-Feb-01 1.78 m 73.0 kg 29 years 104
(h-w)
Valerio Checchi 1980-Mar-04 1.80 m 73.0 kg 26 years 107
(h-w)
Marco Cattaneo 1974-Jun-17 1.88 m 77.0 kg 31 years 110
(h-w)
Nikolay Chebotko 1982-Oct-29 1.78 m 74.5 kg 23 years 103
(h-w)
Sergey Cherepanov 1986-Jan-25 1.75 m 70.0 kg 20 years 105
(h-w)
Alexander Babenko 1980-Mar-25 1.85 m 78.0 kg 25 years 107
(h-w)
Elena Antonova 1971-Apr-22 1.63 m 54.0 kg 34 years 108
(h-w)
Olegs Andrejevs 1980-Dec-09 1.63 m 54.0 kg 25 years 108
(h-w)
Marit Bjorgen 1980-Mar-21 1.68 m 65.0 kg 25 years 102
(h-w)
Jan Egil Andresen 1978-Sep-25 1.78 m 76.0 kg 27 years 101
(h-w)
Anders Aukland 1972-Dec-09 1.80 m 72.0 kg 33 years 108
(h-w)
Zsolt Antal 1972-Mar-21 1.73 m 63.0 kg 33 years 109
(h-w)
Camelia Cernescki 1979-Mar-30 1.65 m 54.0 kg 26 years 111
(h-w)
Maja Benedicic 1982-Jan-27 1.73 m 59.0 kg 24 years 113
(h-w)
Nejc Brodar 1982-Oct-07 1.80 m 70.0 kg 23 years 110
(h-w)
Ursina Badilatti 1982-Dec-17 1.73 m 58.0 kg 23 years 114
(h-w)
Gion Andrea Bundi 1976-May-18 1.78 m 70.0 kg 29 years 107
(h-w)
Reto Burgermeister 1975-Jul-09 1.78 m 65.0 kg 30 years 112
(h-w)
Martin Bajcicak 1976-Dec-06 1.70 m 68.0 kg 29 years 102
(h-w)
Ivan Batory 1975-Mar-05 1.88 m 78.0 kg 31 years 109
(h-w)
Joergen Brink 1974-Oct-03 1.83 m 81.0 kg 31 years 101
(h-w)
Lina Andersson 1981-Mar-18 1.68 m 58.0 kg 24 years 109
(h-w)
Kelime Aydin 1982-Jun-15 1.65 m 58.0 kg 23 years 107
(h-w)
Haibin Chen 1984-May-22 1.75 m 73.0 kg 21 years 102
(h-w)


--
-
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

wrote in message
ups.com...
Hi All,

I thought it might be fun to see what finish time people estimate for
me for the upcoming Birkebeiner.

4:20

Gary Jacobson
Rosendale, NY

wrote:
Hi All,

I thought it might be fun to see what finish time people estimate for
me for the upcoming Birkebeiner. Given a few marginally relavent data
points, and a some guesswork, I'll bet somebody will get pretty close.
The closest estimate gets fame, fortune, and a postcard from
Lillehammer!

Here's the data:

Male, 35 years old, 103kg, approx 5kg overweight.

Not particularly bad technique, but lots of room for improvement.

Theory that steep hills result in disproportionate penalty due to
weight/poor technique.

Theory that 3.5kg backpack is virtually insignificant for 100kg+
person.

Rode the MTB 89km version with a 6kg pack (instead of 3.5kg as
required) in 4:12. Class winners finished under 3 hours.
Ride profile:
http://birkebeiner.no/dokumenter/loy...tt2005_v11.pdf

Skied 25km Montebellol=F8pet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners
finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner.
Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif

On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A
guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another
guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27.

So, anyone feel like making a prediction?

Joseph

Everyone including myself was WAY off. In a time that was undoubtedly
lengthened by the difficult conditions (I hope significantly!) I had
the worst ski tour I have ever been on. And the single most frustrating
unpleasant 6 hours and 56 minutes of my life!

It started with wax-bingo as the recommendations were changing by the
hour. Friday night the lines at the wax booths were hundreds long. Lots
of folks wasted a lot of time and money there! Saturday morning the
recommendations were changed again, twice. I started with V45 which
worked somewhat for about 20 minutes, stopped and applied V60 which
worked sort of for another 20 minutes. Once that stopped working, I
switched to Universal Klister, which was as good as it was going to
get. The temp quickly rose to well above freezing and nobody seemed to
have any grip. I was in wave 17 so the tracks were long gone. Instead
was a maze of hard-packed ice-ruts. It was a trial to even move along
at a walking pace. I saw at least 10 people fall while going up. It was
herring-bone on every incline that was not DP-able. As we got to one of
th eplateau rigions, the wind kicked up to about 30km/h first from the
right-front quarter as we we on an off-camber incline. The packed ice
like surface, the grade and the wind had everyone in a big line
side-stepping up the hill for almost 2km. Then the trail turned into
the wind and I DP'd while everyone else around be diagonaled. Excect
for the 100 or so people who took off their skis and walked. I couldn't
catch the walkers! The descent down to Kvartstad was impossible. The
tracks had been worn out to 6" wide concave valleys that were slush
packed down to a dark gray color, with rocks sticking out occasionaly.
The tracks were also about as straight as a piece of overcooked
spaghetti. So any speed had one doing a lower-leg shimmy as the skis
found there own way down, usually off into another rut. At the food
stations all the paper cups were blowing all over the place getting
stuck in everyones' klister, causing more than a handful of sudden-stop
face-plants. And it was so warm and wet the cups couldn't be peeled
off, as they disintegrated and had to be scraped off. The climb to
Sjusj=F8en had worn out tracks, but the snow between the tracks was
sugary and deep, so switching tracks would kill any momentum one had.
The tracks were just as sloppy, and it was easy to slide off th etracks
sideways ino the sugarly snow. I couldn't do more that 4 diagonal
strides in a row without slipping sideways. Down from Sjusj=F8en the
tracks were miserable. Shimmying down ice-ruts.

I never had enough grip to be able to go fast, and the I was usually
more concerend with falling over than with keeping my effort level up.
My knee hurts from so much herring-bone, and my shoulders are sore, but
I wasn't even tired, just frustrated.

I can see how it would be a great race if it were cold, even with
chewed-up tracks for late starters, but above freezing it was a waste
of time.

We'll see what happens next year!

My only consolation is that the late starters this year as a group did
much worse than the late starters last year.

Joseph

Sounds like fun, where can I enter for the next edition? And why did you
bother bring any ski's to that ice run? ;-)

Just teasing you, lots of respect to you for skiing almost 7 hours as hard
as you can!! I would have been calling for my mommy within the hour for
sure.

Sorry to hear it didn't go as you hoped in advance, I too was looking out to
read how you faired. Is late march maybe pushing it for such an event?
Sounds huge...

Better luck next time!

J

schreef in bericht
oups.com...

wrote:
Hi All,

I thought it might be fun to see what finish time people estimate for
me for the upcoming Birkebeiner. Given a few marginally relavent data
points, and a some guesswork, I'll bet somebody will get pretty close.
The closest estimate gets fame, fortune, and a postcard from
Lillehammer!

Here's the data:

Male, 35 years old, 103kg, approx 5kg overweight.

Not particularly bad technique, but lots of room for improvement.

Theory that steep hills result in disproportionate penalty due to
weight/poor technique.

Theory that 3.5kg backpack is virtually insignificant for 100kg+
person.

Rode the MTB 89km version with a 6kg pack (instead of 3.5kg as
required) in 4:12. Class winners finished under 3 hours.
Ride profile:
http://birkebeiner.no/dokumenter/loy...tt2005_v11.pdf

Skied 25km Montebelloløpet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners
finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner.
Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif

On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A
guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another
guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27.

So, anyone feel like making a prediction?

Joseph

Everyone including myself was WAY off. In a time that was undoubtedly
lengthened by the difficult conditions (I hope significantly!) I had
the worst ski tour I have ever been on. And the single most frustrating
unpleasant 6 hours and 56 minutes of my life!

It started with wax-bingo as the recommendations were changing by the
hour. Friday night the lines at the wax booths were hundreds long. Lots
of folks wasted a lot of time and money there! Saturday morning the
recommendations were changed again, twice. I started with V45 which
worked somewhat for about 20 minutes, stopped and applied V60 which
worked sort of for another 20 minutes. Once that stopped working, I
switched to Universal Klister, which was as good as it was going to
get. The temp quickly rose to well above freezing and nobody seemed to
have any grip. I was in wave 17 so the tracks were long gone. Instead
was a maze of hard-packed ice-ruts. It was a trial to even move along
at a walking pace. I saw at least 10 people fall while going up. It was
herring-bone on every incline that was not DP-able. As we got to one of
th eplateau rigions, the wind kicked up to about 30km/h first from the
right-front quarter as we we on an off-camber incline. The packed ice
like surface, the grade and the wind had everyone in a big line
side-stepping up the hill for almost 2km. Then the trail turned into
the wind and I DP'd while everyone else around be diagonaled. Excect
for the 100 or so people who took off their skis and walked. I couldn't
catch the walkers! The descent down to Kvartstad was impossible. The
tracks had been worn out to 6" wide concave valleys that were slush
packed down to a dark gray color, with rocks sticking out occasionaly.
The tracks were also about as straight as a piece of overcooked
spaghetti. So any speed had one doing a lower-leg shimmy as the skis
found there own way down, usually off into another rut. At the food
stations all the paper cups were blowing all over the place getting
stuck in everyones' klister, causing more than a handful of sudden-stop
face-plants. And it was so warm and wet the cups couldn't be peeled
off, as they disintegrated and had to be scraped off. The climb to
Sjusjøen had worn out tracks, but the snow between the tracks was
sugary and deep, so switching tracks would kill any momentum one had.
The tracks were just as sloppy, and it was easy to slide off th etracks
sideways ino the sugarly snow. I couldn't do more that 4 diagonal
strides in a row without slipping sideways. Down from Sjusjøen the
tracks were miserable. Shimmying down ice-ruts.

I never had enough grip to be able to go fast, and the I was usually
more concerend with falling over than with keeping my effort level up.
My knee hurts from so much herring-bone, and my shoulders are sore, but
I wasn't even tired, just frustrated.

I can see how it would be a great race if it were cold, even with
chewed-up tracks for late starters, but above freezing it was a waste
of time.

We'll see what happens next year!

My only consolation is that the late starters this year as a group did
much worse than the late starters last year.

Joseph