If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. |
|
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
dangerous foolishness of solo skiing
Booker Bense wrote
I've done lots and lots of solo skiing in steep terrain over the years and looked at from a rational point of view, I can't characterize it as anything but "dangerous foolishness". I look back on my solo backcountry ski tours, and I do not see them as "dangerous foolishness" -- at least no more so than backcountry touring generally, in that I would have been safer for that day if I'd stayed home and pedaled on my indoor bicycle and watched a DVD. Almost all the scary things that have happened to me on ski tours have been with partners or groups, doing something I would not have attempted alone. (and somehow almost always, one of those partners was a regional "expert"). I actually prefer to ski with other people, and do that lots. But sometimes there's an excellent window of weather and conditions to do a great tour, but no partners available to do that or something comparable. Like last spring, late April - early May was a fantastic once-in-a-decade opportunity to do some great tours in the southern Sierras of California around Mt Whitney. But not many people around there to ski with. I still was able to find partners to find most of my tours, but not all of them. I don't think there was any significant avalanche danger on any slope I was on for those solo days, and I have no regrets. I agree that if I did get caught in an avalanche when out skiing alone, my chances of survival would be low, even if I were not fully buried. But compared with the foolish risks I've seen on group tours -- including sometimes impromptu foolishness of my own, partly inspired by presence of an audience -- I'm not convinced that typically I am overall less safe on most of my solo tours. I wonder if the accident statistics on solo touring are misleading in that a minority few solo skiers are actually _trying_ to take on serious risk, because they're depressed, or have lost a key component of their social support network -- as a sort of backcountry version of "russian roulette". While many of the other solo ski-tourers are trying to be extra careful on safety, relative to the conditions and weather and their abilities. Statistics for backcountry accidents are very tricky anyway, and I don't know how a research analyst could pull out the cases of risk-seekers to distinguish them from risk-avoiders (or even if they actually fall into distinct clusters). The other problem with backcountry accident statistics is that it's difficult to estimate the "exposure" in each category, i.e. the total number of people out touring including those who did not report accidents. It might be that solo tourers are less likely to sign trailhead registers and less likely to acknowledge their solo-ing in response to survey questions -- so the exposure population for solo touring is under-estimated, which results in the accident rate getting over-estimated. Ken |
Ads |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Ken Roberts wrote:
I wonder if the accident statistics on solo touring are misleading in that a minority few solo skiers are actually _trying_ to take on serious risk, because they're depressed, or have lost a key component of their social support network -- as a sort of backcountry version of "russian roulette". While many of the other solo ski-tourers are trying to be extra careful on safety, relative to the conditions and weather and their abilities. Statistics for backcountry accidents are very tricky anyway, and I don't know how a research analyst could pull out the cases of risk-seekers to distinguish them from risk-avoiders (or even if they actually fall into distinct clusters). Hi Ken, I did an analysis of this point for The Avalanche Review last year. I used the www.skirando.ch database to calculate average group size in the Northern French Alps. No surprise, very few at weekends, quite a lot during the week which makes me conclude that although the participipants in this site are self selecting (maybe they are all internet loners?) they do have a wide enough circle of friends to find partners at the weekend. Ok weekday warriors (Billy Jobless) may have a different profile to weekend singletons (Billy Nomates). What maybe was a surprise is that they form a relatively small part of the avalanche statistics although as Booker has pointed out, avalanches involving death or serious injury (the ones that get reported) are relatively rare (1 per 50-100,000 skiers days according to Munter) so it doesn't take much of a shift in statistics to skew results. With some further analysis the conclusion is that solo skiers select less exposed, more travelled routes (in the Alps you are likely to encounter other people on popular routes even during the week) and are less likely to ski when the avalanche risk is 3 or above. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Thanks for sharing that analysis, David. So it's sounds like you're saying
that in the northern French Alps, the avalanche rate for solo tourers was lower than for groups? And that your proposed explanation is that they solo-ists choose safer routes compared to the conditions. Which fits my solo-skiing pattern in the northern French Alps. I wait until the hazard level is down to 2, and then choose a less-exposed route appropriate to the detailed forecast. Actually there's a handful of routes I might consider soloing even during a general hazard level of 3 -- but there's so many other fun things to do around the French Alps around Chambery (skating on cross-country ski de fond trails, inline-skating or bicycling thru farms and villages in the valley) -- why would I bother? Or even if the hazard is level 3 in one mountain area, there's like ten different mountain groups within two-hour driving range of Chambery, so pretty soon it will be down to level 2 in at least some of those groups. I think one of the most important weapons against avalanches is flexibility. One key disadvantage of a group tour is just inertia. It just takes more time and work to decide to change the plan based on conditions -- both before and during the tour. Ken |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Interesting thread Ken. My experiences:
I don't particularly like skiing in large groups. 3-4 people is enough for me. In terms of avalanche risk, no question about it, I have taken bigger risks when skiing accompanied. I don't accept the notion that an expert skier should stay away from solo ski touring. However, the state of the solo skiers mind is very important. You can hang it on depression or some other clinical dioagnosis. But there are many times when reasonably adjusted individuals are distracted by life's problems. It can be easy to ski into trouble when you're obsessinv about an argument you had with your SO, or about that asshole of a boss you have. I've done this. More than once. Wrote a story about it in fact. I'm pretty cautious when alone. Mostly stick to spring pack or midwinter, I restrict tours to very low risk terrain, when alone. But I'm a sick ******* and I need help. Let's go skiing! DMT |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Dingus Milktoast wrote:
However, the state of the solo skiers mind is very important. You can hang it on depression or some other clinical dioagnosis. But there are many times when reasonably adjusted individuals are distracted by life's problems. It can be easy to ski into trouble when you're obsessinv about an argument you had with your SO, or about that asshole of a boss you have. I've done this. More than once. Wrote a story about it in fact. Well, there's your problem. Get rid of the SO and boss. You'll be fine, and get to ski a whole lot more. And, you'll be safer. -klaus |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
In article , Ken Roberts wrote: Booker Bense wrote I've done lots and lots of solo skiing in steep terrain over the years and looked at from a rational point of view, I can't characterize it as anything but "dangerous foolishness". I look back on my solo backcountry ski tours, and I do not see them as "dangerous foolishness" -- at least no more so than backcountry touring generally, in that I would have been safer for that day if I'd stayed home and pedaled on my indoor bicycle and watched a DVD. _ I don't think "dangerous foolishness" is always something to be avoided. However, you should keep your eyes open so to speak. You are engaging in something that if you should have an accident would be characterized as "dangerous foolishness", at least in the newspapers. In balancing risk and reward, I think it's very easy to underestimate the risk, particularly with something you do a lot. I do almost all my backcountry skiing alone, I find it a useful mental tool to keep perspective. Almost all the scary things that have happened to me on ski tours have been with partners or groups, doing something I would not have attempted alone. (and somehow almost always, one of those partners was a regional "expert"). _ That's been my experience as well. Turning back is a lot easier when you're by yourself. Skiing alone has the potential to be reasonably safe, but only if you realize that the risk is greater and the stakes are much higher. That's what I meant by "dangerous foolishness". The only thing keeping you safe is your judgement and it's incredibly easy to confuse luck with skill. There's a high potential for self delusion in all this, particularly after you've done it a while. Pilots have a handy phrase for this that I can't google at the moment. Basically, you're most dangerous when you have enough experience stop overestimating the risk, but because of your false sense of expertise you begin underestimating the risk. I believe that I fall squarely in this category and I think it applies to 99% of the people that would be categorized as "experienced" in any avalanche survey. _ Booker C. Bense -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: 2.6.2 iQCVAwUBQ01AbmTWTAjn5N/lAQHPSQQAjk9HPN2gUgzQt3ChzLJClujyF1H3JlIc +8Zup29T84qTuvueUxG5770oP61XwHxwewtkC5iSwdS0/IZuJlk3Lv874nywffxo Wgq+yBqQGlFnqd6wfEK5YhQffW9GkWqtRI6aJ95FmRRYKHZIX3 6FeEULjrKQS2vA HG510TrmSBI= =LpjJ -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Booker C. Bense wrote: -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Skiing alone has the potential to be reasonably safe, but only if you realize that the risk is greater and the stakes are much higher. I agree the stakes may be much higher. I do not accept the greater risk argument. Twice now in these threads others have cited evidence to the contrary, that it is group skiing that leads to higher risk, ie more exposure to life threatening danger. You've said so yourself and you implied it again in this response, about how you are LESS LIKELY to ski questionable terrain and MORE LIKELY to turn back. How to you equate that with increased risk, I don't get it? Cheers Booker DMT |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Thanks for another careful and helpful post, Booker. Which I of course will
honor by picking at. Booker Bense wrote: . . . an accident would be characterized as "dangerous foolishness", at least in the newspapers. Yes -- though for me, rather than the newspapers, it's a more helpful warning to think what an accident report compiled by some local backcountry skiing experts would say about my behavior, including sometimes a decision to solo. Which makes me wonder, Why do not accident reports more often say things like: * "The victim unfortunately made the dangerously foolish decision to join a party of size larger than 5 which had not sub-divided". * "The victim made the dangerously foolish decision to join a group ski-touring week with a published itinerary that listed a specific touring objective for each day of the trip." * "The victim made the dangerously foolish descision to join a club trip, offered by a club that was desperate to find people willing to lead trips to fill up its calendar." . . . you're most dangerous when you have enough experience stop overestimating the risk . . . I agree, but what does that have to do with solo versus group touring? Sometimes the group context can make that problem worse -- as the "experts" in the group vie to demonstrate who can devise the more clever explanation for why the obvious warning question raised by the naive newcomer does not apply to today's planned tour. Ken |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Yes but in the special case of group rescues from avalanches in the
backcountry, the amount of this additional survival probability may be a delusion. Kurt Knisely wrote If you F-up w/ a group, you may have some chance of survival. Very carefully phrased. One book on my shelf says that the ratio of number of people who've died in an avalanche to the number of people successfully rescued from a complete burial is about 10 to 1. I'm sure there's more favorable ways to look at the statistics, but it's not unreasonable to claim that out in the backcountry, even when touring with a group, if you get caught in a serious avalanche, you're probably going to die. So it's not like, "If I'm alone and get caught, I'll die unless I'm lucky, but if I'm with a group when I get caught, I'll live unless I'm unlucky." Ken |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
In article , Kurt Knisely wrote: In article .com, Dingus Milktoast says... How to you equate that with increased risk, I don't get it? Extreme Consequences. No one there to dig you out before you suffocate, help splint a leg, light a fire, dig a shelter, go for help. Right? _ That's what I meant. However, the avalanche risk is really not what I was talking about. IMHO, the risks there are about the same. It's the many other things that might only be a good story with a group that can be life threatening alone. The defintion of risk I use is probablity of bad outcome x cost of bad outcome The first doesn't change ( or doesn't get worse ) in solo travel, but the second does. _ Booker C. Bense -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: 2.6.2 iQCVAwUBQ01tB2TWTAjn5N/lAQHXjgQAuSsgES0wxOqePd1pTfcIHh9utwxZRd2Y l/88IuhUKjSDoe4oYZ/dSi9WH5EHIWfycL9AvWk9+YRuo119Dkh46OtEhZf7/WIt YmjjC9xC8PV9XxN1hTrS5HUif3WnjhibIwomAPqmA8Ay/wD7Irq7Zszp5IgOzsnc pqNmuTPmeHM= =5x+Z -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- |
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Tai Chi Skiing | yunlong | Alpine Skiing | 8 | December 17th 04 03:50 PM |
Masters Skiing Camps | Nordic Skiing Instruction | Nordic Skiing | 0 | November 1st 04 12:47 PM |
RFC - The Nordic Skiing Project | the Nordic Skiing Project | Nordic Skiing | 2 | September 24th 04 05:50 PM |
Skiing is dangerous for men ! | Tom-Alex Soorhull | Nordic Skiing | 0 | May 16th 04 07:49 AM |
Near fatal ski incident | Me | Nordic Skiing | 22 | February 27th 04 01:47 PM |