TdS: Who can beat Petter?

To repeat the subject line:

At this point I really wonder who can beat Petter Northug to the top of
the alpine hill on Sunday?

We've had 6 races so far, with Petter getting 3 wins and two podium
finishes. Tomorrow is the big sprint day, with up to 90 seconds to be
gained by winning both the lap sprints and the finish, and I really do
believe Petter is going to end up with at least 60 seconds or so.

OTOH, there are a few skiers capable of beating Petter by over a minute
on that final 3k uphill, so I guess it is still somewhat open?

Terje
--
- Terje.Mathisen at tmsw.no
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

Actually, Friday is a rest day. At every post-race press conference the
past few days Petter has talked about being very tired during the race.
I wonder if that's just his way of talking or if he's going to run up
against it, especially if he does what you suggest Saturday.

Gene

On Thu, 07 Jan 2010 22:00:59 +0100
Terje Mathisen "terje.mathisen at tmsw.no" wrote:

To repeat the subject line:

At this point I really wonder who can beat Petter Northug to the top
of the alpine hill on Sunday?

We've had 6 races so far, with Petter getting 3 wins and two podium
finishes. Tomorrow is the big sprint day, with up to 90 seconds to be
gained by winning both the lap sprints and the finish, and I really
do believe Petter is going to end up with at least 60 seconds or so.

OTOH, there are a few skiers capable of beating Petter by over a
minute on that final 3k uphill, so I guess it is still somewhat open?

Terje
--
- Terje.Mathisen at tmsw.no
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

wrote:
Actually, Friday is a rest day. At every post-race press conference the

Oops!

past few days Petter has talked about being very tired during the race.

On the classic sprint he did seem to be _very_ tired, and he ended up in
45th place on the skate sprint, so yes, he's definitely been tired.

I wonder if that's just his way of talking or if he's going to run up

He's usually been quite the opposite, i.e. extremely exuberant, talking
about "kid's stuff" after winning races etc.

against it, especially if he does what you suggest Saturday.

He might indeed, and that's when Hellner or Cologna or maybe an Italian
skier can blow past him.

Terje

Gene

On Thu, 07 Jan 2010 22:00:59 +0100
Terje Mathisen"terje.mathisen at tmsw.no" wrote:

To repeat the subject line:

At this point I really wonder who can beat Petter Northug to the top
of the alpine hill on Sunday?

We've had 6 races so far, with Petter getting 3 wins and two podium
finishes. Tomorrow is the big sprint day, with up to 90 seconds to be
gained by winning both the lap sprints and the finish, and I really
do believe Petter is going to end up with at least 60 seconds or so.

OTOH, there are a few skiers capable of beating Petter by over a
minute on that final 3k uphill, so I guess it is still somewhat open?

Terje
--
-Terje.Mathisen at tmsw.no
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"


--
- Terje.Mathisen at tmsw.no
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

This doesn't exactly fit here, but the blog by Canadian Devon Kershaw is
worth reading, especially re Prague and tactics in the "loppet" at
Toblach - http://fasterskier.com/2010/01/on-th...devon-kershaw/

Gene


On Thu, 07 Jan 2010 22:00:59 +0100
Terje Mathisen "terje.mathisen at tmsw.no" wrote:

To repeat the subject line:

At this point I really wonder who can beat Petter Northug to the top
of the alpine hill on Sunday?

We've had 6 races so far, with Petter getting 3 wins and two podium
finishes. Tomorrow is the big sprint day, with up to 90 seconds to be
gained by winning both the lap sprints and the finish, and I really
do believe Petter is going to end up with at least 60 seconds or so.

OTOH, there are a few skiers capable of beating Petter by over a
minute on that final 3k uphill, so I guess it is still somewhat open?

Terje
--
- Terje.Mathisen at tmsw.no
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

(I wrote this yesterday but forgot to hit [Send]
wrote:
This doesn't exactly fit here, but the blog by Canadian Devon Kershaw is
worth reading, especially re Prague and tactics in the "loppet" at
Toblach - http://fasterskier.com/2010/01/on-th...devon-kershaw/

I'll check it out!

Re the subject question: Today the answer is in: Lucas Bauer!

Even if Petter managed to claw back 8-10 seconds on the last 1.6 km, and
thereby still leads by the same amount, tomorrow is going to be very tough:

Bauer won two years ago, overtrained last year, but now he seems to be
back on top of his form, and he can definitely outski Petter on that
final climb.

Terje

Gene


On Thu, 07 Jan 2010 22:00:59 +0100
Terje Mathisen"terje.mathisen at tmsw.no" wrote:

To repeat the subject line:

At this point I really wonder who can beat Petter Northug to the top
of the alpine hill on Sunday?

We've had 6 races so far, with Petter getting 3 wins and two podium
finishes. Tomorrow is the big sprint day, with up to 90 seconds to be
gained by winning both the lap sprints and the finish, and I really
do believe Petter is going to end up with at least 60 seconds or so.

OTOH, there are a few skiers capable of beating Petter by over a
minute on that final 3k uphill, so I guess it is still somewhat open?

Terje
--
-Terje.Mathisen at tmsw.no
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"


--
- Terje.Mathisen at tmsw.no
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

On Jan 10, 9:04*pm, Terje Mathisen "terje.mathisen at tmsw.no"
wrote:


Re the subject question: Today the answer is in: Lucas Bauer!

Would you believe that if I had been around and online to read and
answer your question in time, my answer would have been: "Lukas!"?:-)

I did prick up my ears when Bauer did well in the first two stages and
it was completely normal that he would then appear to be a non-entity
in the sprint stages, but in the 5th stage (Cortina-Toblach) where I
fully expected him to "come out of the closet" and to narrow the gap
to the leaders, he somehow managed to be quite unvisible.

But the rest is history... and so plain to foresee after the fact:-)


Even if Petter managed to claw back 8-10 seconds on the last 1.6 km, and
thereby still leads by the same amount, tomorrow is going to be very tough:

As it turned out, it was tougher than that, it seems! If Petter wasn't
Petter, he would probably have resigned himself to guarding his
honourable second place on the podium and began to husband his energy
early on.

Last year this time, I expressed my worry that his "superhuman" fight
- that time with Teichmann - would end up costing him dearly in the
World Championships. I was wrong then.


Bauer won two years ago, overtrained last year, but now he seems to be
back on top of his form, and he can definitely outski Petter on that
final climb.

Lukas is as monstrous a "distance machine" as Petter is a "kick
machine". And his handshake in the finish was almost as good as
Petter's "Barneskirenn!":-)


Anders

And so it went.

Petter's achilles' heel seems to be his weight vs. oxygen update at threshold. You can't call that final climb a VO2 max effort I suppose.
Last year he was not among the very fastest up the hill I sem to remember, and Bauer must have built great confidence skiing away on the classic leg the way he did the day before. It was flat enough for Petter to (just) hold off the others, but it must have been his last "egde" being burnt up there.

I for one like it that Lucas came back this way. He's been accused (at least online) of doping to have that stellar out of no-where season. But then Cologna did exactly the same, while barely out of the diapers. Fellow toddler Northug can't seem to lose any distance in any technique. It's good to see someone with beautiful classic technique, and steady pace, win the TdS this way. I became a bit of a Bauer fan 2 years ago, due to his composed style. I was confident he'd beat Northug up the hill.

Northug is a spoiled athlete, winning everything isn't good for anyone, not even his career. He'll in turn be spoiling most of the Olympics, if the competition doesn't learn to rid of him by over 10s before the last km.

The Eurosport English announcers, both former elite skiers I think,
commented right away that Northug's forward skating position means
more pressure on the front of the ski, which wouldn't be helpful
in the soft snow, vs. Bauer being back more upright and on a full
foot.

Gene


On Sun, 10 Jan 2010 23:44:13 -0800 (PST)
Anders wrote:

On Jan 10, 9:04*pm, Terje Mathisen "terje.mathisen at tmsw.no"
wrote:


Re the subject question: Today the answer is in: Lucas Bauer!

Would you believe that if I had been around and online to read and
answer your question in time, my answer would have been: "Lukas!"?:-)

I did prick up my ears when Bauer did well in the first two stages and
it was completely normal that he would then appear to be a non-entity
in the sprint stages, but in the 5th stage (Cortina-Toblach) where I
fully expected him to "come out of the closet" and to narrow the gap
to the leaders, he somehow managed to be quite unvisible.

But the rest is history... and so plain to foresee after the fact:-)


Even if Petter managed to claw back 8-10 seconds on the last 1.6
km, and thereby still leads by the same amount, tomorrow is going
to be very tough:

As it turned out, it was tougher than that, it seems! If Petter wasn't
Petter, he would probably have resigned himself to guarding his
honourable second place on the podium and began to husband his energy
early on.

Last year this time, I expressed my worry that his "superhuman" fight
- that time with Teichmann - would end up costing him dearly in the
World Championships. I was wrong then.


Bauer won two years ago, overtrained last year, but now he seems to
be back on top of his form, and he can definitely outski Petter on
that final climb.

Lukas is as monstrous a "distance machine" as Petter is a "kick
machine". And his handshake in the finish was almost as good as
Petter's "Barneskirenn!":-)


Anders

Jan Gerrit Klok wrote:
And so it went.

Petter's achilles' heel seems to be his weight vs. oxygen update at
threshold. You can't call that final climb a VO2 max effort I suppose.

Huh???

Rather the opposite: That hill is just like the alpine climbs in TdF,
where VO2 max and max sustained power determines the finishing order.

Last year he was not among the very fastest up the hill I sem to

He lost a minute+, like I wrote before the race when tipping LB to beat him.

Northug is a spoiled athlete, winning everything isn't good for anyone,
not even his career. He'll in turn be spoiling most of the Olympics, if
the competition doesn't learn to rid of him by over 10s before the last
km.

Northug would have been an also-ran in the days of Ulvang and Dæhlie,
but then the other skiing nations insisted on having all these mass
start, chase start and sprint-oriented events, against the very strong
protests from Norway. :-)

BTW, Jan, are you skating the 11 town race this coming weekend? From
trying to read the dutch web site, it sees like it is on again, for the
first time since 1997!

Terje

--
- Terje.Mathisen at tmsw.no
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

No way 11 town race. First we need to get through a period of plus temps. Ducks are still swimming parts of the course. For recreational skating it's not even safe, anywhere in the country. I just did some laps on a flooded field ice track.

Of course Northug is not an also-ran, he's proven that. He's just not all-dominant.

I was impressed that Bauer, with his comfortable lead and controlled pace, managed to set the best time. I knew he is good, but he did more than he had to.
Northug has barely ever lost a ski race, so it will be hard to convince him to adjust his technique to be even better and not get spanked when the trail keeps pointing up and the speed drops below 20kph.

Perhaps it would have been a nice spectacle to have the ladies ski up the hill AFTER the men. Let Majdic start together with the last man in the standings. He won't be able to hide. In plain view of the tv cams, so he'll have to dig deep. This will also boost the status of female top sports. In Biathlon where the field is more spread, the top women are already consistently faster on their skis than the men outside the top 80 or 100.