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#1
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An exercise in handicapping
Hi All,
I thought it might be fun to see what finish time people estimate for me for the upcoming Birkebeiner. Given a few marginally relavent data points, and a some guesswork, I'll bet somebody will get pretty close. The closest estimate gets fame, fortune, and a postcard from Lillehammer! Here's the data: Male, 35 years old, 103kg, approx 5kg overweight. Not particularly bad technique, but lots of room for improvement. Theory that steep hills result in disproportionate penalty due to weight/poor technique. Theory that 3.5kg backpack is virtually insignificant for 100kg+ person. Rode the MTB 89km version with a 6kg pack (instead of 3.5kg as required) in 4:12. Class winners finished under 3 hours. Ride profile: http://birkebeiner.no/dokumenter/loy...tt2005_v11.pdf Skied 25km Montebellol=F8pet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner. Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27. So, anyone feel like making a prediction? Joseph |
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#3
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"Anders" wrote:
(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Gene |
#4
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Anders wrote: kirjoitti: Male, 35 years old, 103kg, approx 5kg overweight. So you stand a little over two meters tall?:-) (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 =3D weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) That's interesting. I am 193cm. Yet another statistic that widens the gulf between me and elite skiers! Not particularly bad technique, but lots of room for improvement. Only a fool would believe otherwise... ;-) Theory that steep hills result in disproportionate penalty due to weight/poor technique. OTOH if you'll be starting quite a bit from the mayhem at the front, chances vare your pace will be dictated by the crowd and slower than you'd perhaps like, i.e. at a pace that doesn't cost you disproportionately. I hadn't thought of the traffic issue. The idea that people in front of me might be slower uphill is a foreign concept! As I am a newcomer, I am in wave 17. So essentially everyone is going to be in front of me. Skied 25km Montebellol=F8pet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner. Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif Hmm, 2min/km slower than the winner would be about 4:30 - but can we assume that the difference will not grow as the distance doubles? I think the longer distance works out somewhat to my advantage (or at least not a disadvantage!). I am used to bike rides lasting 7-21 hours (250-540km) and 4-5 hours sounds very comfortable. The 2:10 race felt like a sprint. On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27. But we have the instant answer here, don't we? 1min on the 5km lap equals 21min in the Birkebeineren which means you''ll finish in 5:15! Short steep, vs long gradual, that's the question. So, anyone feel like making a prediction? If you're over 190cm tall, if you get someone to wax your skis and the weather gods don't get nasty, you can go sub-5. 193cm, Oslo Sportslager, -6C. Sounds like a plan! (A bonus prediction: next year you'll have a go at sub-4.) Promise? Joseph |
#5
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Gene Goldenfeld wrote: "Anders" wrote: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Gene Someone handy with Perl or similar could parse the pages he http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/tor...=cross_country And plot out the height:weight ratios. Terje, feel like doing an "exercise in caching"? Joseph |
#6
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wrote:
Hi All, I thought it might be fun to see what finish time people estimate for me for the upcoming Birkebeiner. Given a few marginally relavent data points, and a some guesswork, I'll bet somebody will get pretty close. The closest estimate gets fame, fortune, and a postcard from Lillehammer! Before seeing this post, I had my own guess down: 4:45 Anything less than 4:30 is very impressive, the pin will usually end up close to 4:00 or a bit below. Skied 25km Montebelloløpet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner. This is the only important data point, assuming it is/was classic, it indicates a time in to 5:00 to 5:30 range. Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27. This would also indicate somewhere around 5:00, depedning upon conditions, but it is much easier to keep up the speed without proper technique on a short loop. Anyway, I'm staying with my original 4:45, hope you make it! Good luck! Terje -- - "almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching" |
#7
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(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) I need to put on some weight then. 1m94/81kg right now. In mountainbiking not an excuse to lose to anyone, but I can see I'm too skinny now to deliver he required upper body power at racing level. On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27. 10min/5km, really? Wow. That will be quite hard to beat on a bicycle! Sure it's a full 5km? Most pro skating races seem to get slower finish times? Enjoy! J |
#8
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Gene Goldenfeld wrote:
"Anders" wrote: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Top skiers have more muscle bulk to power up & down those hilly world cup courses? I'm 171 and have been 58.5 kg (+/- 1) since 1977. Call it 112 which makes me a bit too skinny, even though serious rock climbing have given me more upper body bulk than what's needed for running. However, as an orienteer I have to lift my weight instead of gliding on skis, I'd guess long distance runners would tend to be more skinny than xc skiers. Terje -- - "almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching" |
#9
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wrote:
Gene Goldenfeld wrote: "Anders" wrote: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Gene Someone handy with Perl or similar could parse the pages he http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/tor...=cross_country And plot out the height:weight ratios. Terje, feel like doing an "exercise in caching"? No caching involved, except possibly by the perl http libraries. I took a look, the main problem is that you first need to traverse 7-8 index pages, then follow the links to all 353 athletes. This is hard to do without being classified (and banned) as a robot by yahoo.com :-( Terje PS. All the stats are in feet,inches,pounds but that just adds a bit more uncertainty. -- - "almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching" |
#10
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Okay Joseph, maybe I started this way back by saying
about 5 hours, then revising it to closer to 4, so I'll put my entry in as 4h29'59" (assuming it doesn't really warm up and turn into a slush bowl). Best, Peter |
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