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#11
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"Booker C. Bense" bbense+rec.skiing.backcountry.Oct.12.05@telemark. slac.stanford.edu wrote in message ... snip The only thing keeping you safe is your judgement and it's incredibly easy to confuse luck with skill. There's a high potential for self delusion in all this, particularly after you've done it a while. Pilots have a handy phrase for this that I can't google at the moment. Basically, you're most dangerous when you have enough experience stop overestimating the risk, but because of your false sense of expertise you begin underestimating the risk. I believe that I fall squarely in this category and I think it applies to 99% of the people that would be categorized as "experienced" in any avalanche survey. _ Booker C. Bense As a collector of "pilot's handy phrases" I would appreciate your posting this phrase when you recall it. (Probably 10 minutes after you hit send) The phrases that come to my mind are the classics, "Good pilots use their superior judgment to keep them out of situations where they might be required to demonstrate their superior skill." "Good judgment comes from experience, unfortunately, the experience usually comes from bad judgment." "Don't worry about whether you'll live or die; worry about how stupid you'll look in the accident report." TIA |
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#12
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private wrote:
"Booker C. Bense" bbense+rec.skiing.backcountry.Oct.12.05@telemark. slac.stanford.edu wrote in message ... snip The only thing keeping you safe is your judgement and it's incredibly easy to confuse luck with skill. There's a high potential for self delusion in all this, particularly after you've done it a while. Pilots have a handy phrase for this that I can't google at the moment. Basically, you're most dangerous when you have enough experience stop overestimating the risk, but because of your false sense of expertise you begin underestimating the risk. Reminds me of the accident on of the Kennedys had flying out at night to Martha's Vineyard. Did anyone read about that? Flying on instruments you can go into a 1G spin. Pilots have trouble believing the altimeter ticking down and assume it is equipment malfunction. Often the first they know they have made a bad decision is when they hit the ground at 200mph (or the wings rip off due to air speed). |
#13
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
In article , davidof wrote: private wrote: "Booker C. Bense" bbense+rec.skiing.backcountry.Oct.12.05@telemark. slac.stanford.edu wrote Pilots have a handy phrase for this that I can't google at the moment. Basically, you're most dangerous when you have enough experience stop overestimating the risk, but because of your false sense of expertise you begin underestimating the risk. Reminds me of the accident on of the Kennedys had flying out at night to Martha's Vineyard. _ That's the context that I first heard it, it has do with the number of flight hours and expertise. This is as close as I could find. "When you become confident, be three times as careful" The number that seems to come up a lot is 200-500 hours. Which would be about 30 -60 days of backcountry skiing. _ Booker C. Bense -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: 2.6.2 iQCVAwUBQ0/eomTWTAjn5N/lAQEx6wQAlf+h0exq4CJBCsgD/GtkkChPP0piSDYs edjzBAC/FUtR70wST78oARHnZWBVhFg8SD2WiBhOT7m3QPOJJF/VhGxiasDVgclI X6QFdhZQv6evEVc8KQYnB2zz1rP+2ZSbNPcIRrt4ADDcgoqVDt QQ+06P40n9axeK cikqpT5Qj9o= =38HG -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- |
#14
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In article ,
Booker C. Bense bbense+rec.skiing.backcountry.Oct.14.05@telemark. slac.stanford.edu wrote: Pilots have a handy phrase for this that I can't google at the moment. Basically, you're most dangerous "Old pilots -- bold pilots -- no old, bold pilots" ?? (not exactly what you were after) |
#15
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On Fri, 14 Oct 2005 20:11:29 -0700, AES wrote:
In article , Booker C. Bense bbense+rec.skiing.backcountry.Oct.14.05@telemark. slac.stanford.edu wrote: Pilots have a handy phrase for this that I can't google at the moment. Basically, you're most dangerous "Old pilots -- bold pilots -- no old, bold pilots" ?? (not exactly what you were after) "There are old pilots and there are bold pilots, but there are no old, bold, pilots." hth; DCraig. |
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