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#1
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An exercise in handicapping
Hi All,
I thought it might be fun to see what finish time people estimate for me for the upcoming Birkebeiner. Given a few marginally relavent data points, and a some guesswork, I'll bet somebody will get pretty close. The closest estimate gets fame, fortune, and a postcard from Lillehammer! Here's the data: Male, 35 years old, 103kg, approx 5kg overweight. Not particularly bad technique, but lots of room for improvement. Theory that steep hills result in disproportionate penalty due to weight/poor technique. Theory that 3.5kg backpack is virtually insignificant for 100kg+ person. Rode the MTB 89km version with a 6kg pack (instead of 3.5kg as required) in 4:12. Class winners finished under 3 hours. Ride profile: http://birkebeiner.no/dokumenter/loy...tt2005_v11.pdf Skied 25km Montebellol=F8pet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner. Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27. So, anyone feel like making a prediction? Joseph |
#3
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"Anders" wrote:
(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Gene |
#4
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Gene Goldenfeld wrote: "Anders" wrote: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Gene Someone handy with Perl or similar could parse the pages he http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/tor...=cross_country And plot out the height:weight ratios. Terje, feel like doing an "exercise in caching"? Joseph |
#5
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wrote:
Gene Goldenfeld wrote: "Anders" wrote: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Gene Someone handy with Perl or similar could parse the pages he http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/tor...=cross_country And plot out the height:weight ratios. Terje, feel like doing an "exercise in caching"? No caching involved, except possibly by the perl http libraries. I took a look, the main problem is that you first need to traverse 7-8 index pages, then follow the links to all 353 athletes. This is hard to do without being classified (and banned) as a robot by yahoo.com :-( Terje PS. All the stats are in feet,inches,pounds but that just adds a bit more uncertainty. -- - "almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching" |
#6
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Terje Mathisen wrote: wrote: Gene Goldenfeld wrote: "Anders" wrote: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Gene Someone handy with Perl or similar could parse the pages he http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/tor...=cross_country And plot out the height:weight ratios. Terje, feel like doing an "exercise in caching"? No caching involved, except possibly by the perl http libraries. I took a look, the main problem is that you first need to traverse 7-8 index pages, then follow the links to all 353 athletes. This is hard to do without being classified (and banned) as a robot by yahoo.com :-( Terje PS. All the stats are in feet,inches,pounds but that just adds a bit more uncertainty. I just wget'ed about 50 athletes pages. There is a zip file with them at http://arbitrary.org/tmp.zip if you feel like having a look, I'm lousy at regex stuff. Joseph |
#7
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(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) I need to put on some weight then. 1m94/81kg right now. In mountainbiking not an excuse to lose to anyone, but I can see I'm too skinny now to deliver he required upper body power at racing level. On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27. 10min/5km, really? Wow. That will be quite hard to beat on a bicycle! Sure it's a full 5km? Most pro skating races seem to get slower finish times? Enjoy! J |
#8
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Jan Gerrit Klok wrote: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 =3D weight in kg" tends to apply= to 99% of elite skiers...) I need to put on some weight then. 1m94/81kg right now. In mountainbiking not an excuse to lose to anyone, but I can see I'm too skinny now to deli= ver he required upper body power at racing level. On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27. 10min/5km, really? Wow. That will be quite hard to beat on a bicycle! Sure it's a full 5km? Most pro skating races seem to get slower finish times? Enjoy! J The 5km must be incorrect. But the guy is still very fast. He was 3 minutes behind J=F8rgen Aukland (Marcialonga winner) at a classic race earlier this year at the same location, but with a slightly different more demanding loop. Joseph |
#9
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Gene Goldenfeld wrote:
"Anders" wrote: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Top skiers have more muscle bulk to power up & down those hilly world cup courses? I'm 171 and have been 58.5 kg (+/- 1) since 1977. Call it 112 which makes me a bit too skinny, even though serious rock climbing have given me more upper body bulk than what's needed for running. However, as an orienteer I have to lift my weight instead of gliding on skis, I'd guess long distance runners would tend to be more skinny than xc skiers. Terje -- - "almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching" |
#10
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Gene Goldenfeld kirjoitti: (The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to 99% of elite skiers...) Is this really true? Where does it come from? I have to admit the "formula" is something I once made up, but it has always struck me how well the vast majority of true elite, Olympic calibre skiers fits in it. The exceptions are typically younger guys who will add some muscle mass and sprinters who sometimes can resemble icehockey players (a case in point would be Svartedal, 181/82!). OTOH in the current Norwgian top Estil, 188/83, is obviously too heavy and Hjelmeset (180/69) clearly borders on being too skinny... I wonder if it changes with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at 80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago . Well, I'm somehow under the impression that there'll be some degree of unavoidable increase of fat percentage and decrease of lean muscle mass (from assumed ideal elite athlete levels) and that the degree can be influenced by how much and how one trains to keep in shape. In any case, my tenet is that don't fix it, if you feel good in it. I'm a frightening (for a skier) 178/65 (and I suffer for it, too, on those DP stretches), but heck, I'm not going to put the carriage in front of the horse and start spending valuable skiing or running time in the gym! Anders |
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