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Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!



 
 
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  #1  
Old March 7th 04, 03:09 PM
Jay Tegeder
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!

Some great analogies can be made between The Swedish Vasaloppet and
American Baseball. We in the U.S. have a saying; "There's joy in
Mudville!" This saying is used after the hometown team wins. However,
not just any win. Usually, we're talking about a team that has tried
for years to win the big one but always seems to fall short. Finally,
when they reach the pinnacle and win the World Series, "There's joy in
Mudville!" Well, think of all of Norway as Mudville... After years of
trying and coming close to victory, they finally won the World's most
prestigous race, the Vasaloppet. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think
the last Norwegian to win the Vasa was Harold Gronigen in 1971. The
last decade has seen Erling Jevne and Anders Auckland have several
chances each to win the race, only to fall short. Anyway, Anders
Auckland finally put it all together and took the Victory. Making it
even better, his brother Joergen took 3rd. In my bias, I rank
victories in the following order; 1) Olympic Gold Medal, 2) Vasaloppet
Victory, 3) World Championship Gold Medal.

Here are some statistics (BTW, a baseball term is "Damm lies and
statistics.";

1) Anders Auckland NOR 3:48
2) Raul Olle EST (former Vasa Champion)
3) Joergen Auckland NOR
4) Oskar Svard SWE (last year's Vasa Champion)
5) Marco Cattaneo ITA
6) Daniel Tynell SWE (former Vasa Champion)
9) Stanislav Rezac CZE
13) Staffan Larsson SWE (former Vasa Champion)
14) Silvio Fauner ITA
27) Morten Brors (NOR)
28) Vincent Vittoz (FRA)
35) Hiroyuki Imai (JPN)
39) Mika Myllyla (FIN)
60) Fabio Maj (SWE)
590) FrontRunner (Greg Worsnop) USA 4:46

Half Vasa
Nordic Norm (John O'Connell) 3:38

Town Sprints - Where tons of cash can be made...
Raul Olle - 4 wins
Stanislav Rezac - 1 win
Norway - 2 more
Anders Auckland - 1 - the most important Town Sprint!

Jay Tegeder
"I faders spar for framtids segrar"
1996 Vasa participant - 6:43 - The World's Greatest Race!!!
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  #2  
Old March 7th 04, 04:05 PM
Terje Mathisen
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!

Jay Tegeder wrote:

Some great analogies can be made between The Swedish Vasaloppet and
American Baseball. We in the U.S. have a saying; "There's joy in
Mudville!" This saying is used after the hometown team wins. However,
not just any win. Usually, we're talking about a team that has tried
for years to win the big one but always seems to fall short. Finally,
when they reach the pinnacle and win the World Series, "There's joy in
Mudville!" Well, think of all of Norway as Mudville... After years of
trying and coming close to victory, they finally won the World's most
prestigous race, the Vasaloppet. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think
the last Norwegian to win the Vasa was Harold Gronigen in 1971. The


71 is right, but Ole Ellefsæther are probably sad that you're giving
away his win. :-)

last decade has seen Erling Jevne and Anders Auckland have several
chances each to win the race, only to fall short. Anyway, Anders


I think you're wrong: Aukland have been close many of the the last
years, but it's been Jørgen, not his older and more famous brother Anders.

Auckland finally put it all together and took the Victory. Making it
even better, his brother Joergen took 3rd. In my bias, I rank
victories in the following order; 1) Olympic Gold Medal, 2) Vasaloppet
Victory, 3) World Championship Gold Medal.


Vegard Ulvang said at last a couple of times during the NRK transmission
that after his retirement, the only real regret he's had was that he'd
never gotten the chance to make a real try at winning the Vasa.

Town Sprints - Where tons of cash can be made...
Raul Olle - 4 wins
Stanislav Rezac - 1 win
Norway - 2 more
Anders Auckland - 1 - the most important Town Sprint!


Anders intentionally (at least it did look that way on TV) let Raul win
all of the town sprints while they were alternating the lead during the
last 30 K.

I suspect he wanted Raol to win them both because he probably needed the
money more than Anders, and because he was hoping that Raol would expend
a little extra energy each time, making it easier to beat him where it
really counted.

Terje
--
-
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"
  #3  
Old March 7th 04, 06:23 PM
Davide Tosi
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!

(Jay Tegeder) wrote:

60) Fabio Maj (SWE)


Sorry, but last time I checked the town of Schilpario was still quite a bit
South of the Baltic Sea ...

  #5  
Old March 8th 04, 01:52 AM
Mitch Collinsworth
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!


On Sun, 7 Mar 2004, Terje Mathisen wrote:

Jay Tegeder wrote:


Town Sprints - Where tons of cash can be made...
Raul Olle - 4 wins
Stanislav Rezac - 1 win
Norway - 2 more
Anders Auckland - 1 - the most important Town Sprint!


Anders intentionally (at least it did look that way on TV) let Raul win
all of the town sprints while they were alternating the lead during the
last 30 K.

I suspect he wanted Raol to win them both because he probably needed the
money more than Anders, and because he was hoping that Raol would expend
a little extra energy each time, making it easier to beat him where it
really counted.


I didn't see it on TV (yet, hopefully Janne will make it possible yet),
but from looking at the 2003 video on his web site and from your
description, this is clearly turning into a sport similar to bicycle
road racing. A lead pack travelling at such speed that drafting is
critical and from which it's difficult to make a break that will
stick. Cycling has the advantage of many, many years of practice in
honing strategy and teamwork. One such strategy is "deal-making".

When two guys get away together their best bet at staying away to the
finish is to work together, which is obviously what they did today.
If the break succeeds they are each guaranteed no worse than 2nd place
(assuming noone else succeeds in bridging up later in the race). Of
course they would both still like to be 1st place, so one strategy might
be to attempt to conserve energy in hopes of beating the other. But if
overdone this can lead to the break being caught. But that's no good.
2nd is still far better than getting caught and having to fight it out
at the end for 30 places. So what to do? This is where deal-making
comes in. Raul and Anders may well have brokered a deal on the spot.
Anders gets the win and Raul gets all the town sprints. Now that that's
agreed, let's put our energy into staying ahead as a team and not into
battling with each other.

But maybe that's not entirely fair? The deal may have been more
extensive. Anders may have pledged to help Raul win a future race.
Speculation? Certainly. But this stuff happens all the time in
cycling. Once you get into mass start pack racing, it's good to have
as many friends as you can in the pack.

-Mitch




  #6  
Old March 8th 04, 02:53 AM
Gary Jacobson
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!


"Mitch Collinsworth" wrote in message
r.cornell.edu...
So what to do? This is where deal-making
comes in.


What language is used? Or I wonder if it is almost unspoken, and the
strategy becomes obvious by way of behavior. In some cases I wouldn't be
surprised if foreign language ability plays some role in success.

Gary Jacobson
Rosendale, NY


  #7  
Old March 8th 04, 10:02 AM
Terje Mathisen
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!

Mitch Collinsworth wrote:
On Sun, 7 Mar 2004, Terje Mathisen wrote:
Anders intentionally (at least it did look that way on TV) let Raul win
all of the town sprints while they were alternating the lead during the
last 30 K.

I suspect he wanted Raol to win them both because he probably needed the
money more than Anders, and because he was hoping that Raol would expend
a little extra energy each time, making it easier to beat him where it
really counted.


I didn't see it on TV (yet, hopefully Janne will make it possible yet),
but from looking at the 2003 video on his web site and from your
description, this is clearly turning into a sport similar to bicycle
road racing. A lead pack travelling at such speed that drafting is


Absolutely right!

The only way to make it more obvious would be to have everyone skate. :-(

critical and from which it's difficult to make a break that will
stick. Cycling has the advantage of many, many years of practice in
honing strategy and teamwork. One such strategy is "deal-making".

When two guys get away together their best bet at staying away to the
finish is to work together, which is obviously what they did today.


Yeah, from watching it it looked like the first 10 K or so was spent
partly testing each other (Raol had slightly better grip on the uphills,
Anders the strongest arms), but they soon started to alternate, with the
lead guy stepping out of the track and waving the other forwards.

If the break succeeds they are each guaranteed no worse than 2nd place
(assuming noone else succeeds in bridging up later in the race). Of
course they would both still like to be 1st place, so one strategy might
be to attempt to conserve energy in hopes of beating the other. But if
overdone this can lead to the break being caught. But that's no good.
2nd is still far better than getting caught and having to fight it out
at the end for 30 places. So what to do? This is where deal-making
comes in. Raul and Anders may well have brokered a deal on the spot.
Anders gets the win and Raul gets all the town sprints. Now that that's
agreed, let's put our energy into staying ahead as a team and not into
battling with each other.


That's definitely a possible scenario, but not what happened this year:

Considering that they won by two minutes, Raol kept pressuring Anders
all the way to the finish, which wasn't needed at all. I.e. I haven't
seen any list of splits from each of the last 10 K or so, but my guess
is that the leaders never relented at all compared to the big pack
fighting for third place.

Anders stated on NRK last evening (NRK + Bjørn Dæhlie picked him up at
Mora with a small Cessna, so he didn't need to drive the four hours back
to Oslo. This gave him some time to say hello to his wife and newborn
son, Oliver, before the interview) that he tried to make Raol pull as
much as possible, and 'giving away' the sprint victories were part of
that, i.e. each time they got sufficiently close, Anders would gasp "Go
ahead! Get the sprint money!".

But maybe that's not entirely fair? The deal may have been more
extensive. Anders may have pledged to help Raul win a future race.


Anything is possible, but I'd give 10:1 odds against that having
happened here. Remember that Raol won some years ago by making a break
after just 1/3 of the race, then staying ahead. He made an attempt again
this time, but was reeled back in relatively quickly.

Anders was very inactive at this period.

Later on, when Anders did make his break, they were both on camera
continously with the snowmobile staying _very_ close to them all the
way. They didn't have any chance for any kind of secret communication at
this time.

Speculation? Certainly. But this stuff happens all the time in
cycling. Once you get into mass start pack racing, it's good to have
as many friends as you can in the pack.


The friends he had were _very_ obvious: Chiefly his brothers Jørgen and
Frank.

Their plan, which worked so nicely, was for Jørgen to do his very best
to slow down the pack when Anders broke away. He skied close on the
heels of Svärd, clicking his heels a few times, sliding up alongside on
the downhills, saying stuff like 'Hey, your glide seems to suck, man!',
and generally having a great time with the guy who beat him on the final
stretch last year. :-)

Jørgen did go in front a few times, but only to immediately slow the
pace down again.

Previously (i.e. in the first half of) the race Jørgen had been in
trouble a couple of times, on both occasions Frank waited for him and
helped pull him backm into the leader pack.

The Aukland brothers also had a backup plan: If Svärd and/or some others
should manage to make proper team effort and pull up to Anders, Jørgen
would hang along, and then make an immediate break as soon as they
caught up, being more rested than any of the others at that point.

In the end, this sort of happened anyway, because at the 5 K marker the
relatively rested Jørgen didn't have any problems breaking away from the
pack and ski in to an uncontested third spot.

Terje
--
-
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"
  #8  
Old March 8th 04, 12:25 PM
Jay Tegeder
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!

My fault... I've followed Fabio Maj's career for the last decade. I
know he's from Italy. Don't know why I put down SWE... Freudian? When
I think of the Vasaloppet, I think of Sweden...

Jay Tegeder
"Keep training, lycra never lies!" JT


(Davide Tosi) wrote in message ...
(Jay Tegeder) wrote:

60) Fabio Maj (SWE)


Sorry, but last time I checked the town of Schilpario was still quite a bit
South of the Baltic Sea ...

  #9  
Old March 8th 04, 03:35 PM
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!

In article , Jay
Tegeder wrote:
1) Anders Auckland NOR 3:48


And, our local boy ...
134) Chad Giese 4:18

Brian
  #10  
Old March 9th 04, 03:09 AM
Gene Goldenfeld
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Default Vasaloppet '04 Damm Lies and Statistics - Joy in Mudville!

Did you take a look at Chad's splits? From about 25th at the first
marker, his placing fell progressively. Will be interesting to read his
report.

Gene



wrote:

In article , Jay
Tegeder wrote:
1) Anders Auckland NOR 3:48


And, our local boy ...
134) Chad Giese 4:18

Brian

 




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