A Snow and ski forum. SkiBanter

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Go Back   Home » SkiBanter forum » Skiing Newsgroups » Backcountry Skiing
Site Map Home Register Authors List Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Web Partners

dangerous foolishness of solo skiing



 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old October 11th 05, 02:13 PM
Ken Roberts
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default dangerous foolishness of solo skiing

Booker Bense wrote
I've done lots and lots of solo skiing in steep terrain
over the years and looked at from a rational point of
view, I can't characterize it as anything but "dangerous foolishness".


I look back on my solo backcountry ski tours, and I do not see them as
"dangerous foolishness" -- at least no more so than backcountry touring
generally, in that I would have been safer for that day if I'd stayed home
and pedaled on my indoor bicycle and watched a DVD.

Almost all the scary things that have happened to me on ski tours have been
with partners or groups, doing something I would not have attempted alone.
(and somehow almost always, one of those partners was a regional "expert").

I actually prefer to ski with other people, and do that lots. But sometimes
there's an excellent window of weather and conditions to do a great tour,
but no partners available to do that or something comparable. Like last
spring, late April - early May was a fantastic once-in-a-decade opportunity
to do some great tours in the southern Sierras of California around Mt
Whitney. But not many people around there to ski with. I still was able to
find partners to find most of my tours, but not all of them. I don't think
there was any significant avalanche danger on any slope I was on for those
solo days, and I have no regrets.

I agree that if I did get caught in an avalanche when out skiing alone, my
chances of survival would be low, even if I were not fully buried. But
compared with the foolish risks I've seen on group tours -- including
sometimes impromptu foolishness of my own, partly inspired by presence of an
audience -- I'm not convinced that typically I am overall less safe on most
of my solo tours.

I wonder if the accident statistics on solo touring are misleading in that a
minority few solo skiers are actually _trying_ to take on serious risk,
because they're depressed, or have lost a key component of their social
support network -- as a sort of backcountry version of "russian roulette".
While many of the other solo ski-tourers are trying to be extra careful on
safety, relative to the conditions and weather and their abilities.
Statistics for backcountry accidents are very tricky anyway, and I don't
know how a research analyst could pull out the cases of risk-seekers to
distinguish them from risk-avoiders (or even if they actually fall into
distinct clusters).

The other problem with backcountry accident statistics is that it's
difficult to estimate the "exposure" in each category, i.e. the total number
of people out touring including those who did not report accidents. It
might be that solo tourers are less likely to sign trailhead registers and
less likely to acknowledge their solo-ing in response to survey questions --
so the exposure population for solo touring is under-estimated, which
results in the accident rate getting over-estimated.

Ken


Ads
  #2  
Old October 12th 05, 07:40 AM
davidof
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Ken Roberts wrote:

I wonder if the accident statistics on solo touring are misleading in that a
minority few solo skiers are actually _trying_ to take on serious risk,
because they're depressed, or have lost a key component of their social
support network -- as a sort of backcountry version of "russian roulette".
While many of the other solo ski-tourers are trying to be extra careful on
safety, relative to the conditions and weather and their abilities.
Statistics for backcountry accidents are very tricky anyway, and I don't
know how a research analyst could pull out the cases of risk-seekers to
distinguish them from risk-avoiders (or even if they actually fall into
distinct clusters).


Hi Ken, I did an analysis of this point for The Avalanche Review last
year. I used the www.skirando.ch database to calculate average group
size in the Northern French Alps. No surprise, very few at weekends,
quite a lot during the week which makes me conclude that although the
participipants in this site are self selecting (maybe they are all
internet loners?) they do have a wide enough circle of friends to find
partners at the weekend. Ok weekday warriors (Billy Jobless) may have a
different profile to weekend singletons (Billy Nomates).

What maybe was a surprise is that they form a relatively small part of
the avalanche statistics although as Booker has pointed out, avalanches
involving death or serious injury (the ones that get reported) are
relatively rare (1 per 50-100,000 skiers days according to Munter) so it
doesn't take much of a shift in statistics to skew results.

With some further analysis the conclusion is that solo skiers select
less exposed, more travelled routes (in the Alps you are likely to
encounter other people on popular routes even during the week) and are
less likely to ski when the avalanche risk is 3 or above.
  #3  
Old October 12th 05, 03:24 PM
Ken Roberts
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Thanks for sharing that analysis, David. So it's sounds like you're saying
that in the northern French Alps, the avalanche rate for solo tourers was
lower than for groups?

And that your proposed explanation is that they solo-ists choose safer
routes compared to the conditions.

Which fits my solo-skiing pattern in the northern French Alps. I wait until
the hazard level is down to 2, and then choose a less-exposed route
appropriate to the detailed forecast.

Actually there's a handful of routes I might consider soloing even during a
general hazard level of 3 -- but there's so many other fun things to do
around the French Alps around Chambery (skating on cross-country ski de fond
trails, inline-skating or bicycling thru farms and villages in the
valley) -- why would I bother? Or even if the hazard is level 3 in one
mountain area, there's like ten different mountain groups within two-hour
driving range of Chambery, so pretty soon it will be down to level 2 in at
least some of those groups.

I think one of the most important weapons against avalanches is flexibility.
One key disadvantage of a group tour is just inertia. It just takes more
time and work to decide to change the plan based on conditions -- both
before and during the tour.

Ken


  #4  
Old October 12th 05, 04:14 PM
Dingus Milktoast
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Interesting thread Ken. My experiences:

I don't particularly like skiing in large groups. 3-4 people is enough
for me.

In terms of avalanche risk, no question about it, I have taken bigger
risks when skiing accompanied.

I don't accept the notion that an expert skier should stay away from
solo ski touring.

However, the state of the solo skiers mind is very important. You can
hang it on depression or some other clinical dioagnosis. But there are
many times when reasonably adjusted individuals are distracted by
life's problems. It can be easy to ski into trouble when you're
obsessinv about an argument you had with your SO, or about that asshole
of a boss you have. I've done this. More than once. Wrote a story about
it in fact.

I'm pretty cautious when alone. Mostly stick to spring pack or
midwinter, I restrict tours to very low risk terrain, when alone.

But I'm a sick ******* and I need help.

Let's go skiing!

DMT

  #5  
Old October 12th 05, 04:23 PM
klaus
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Dingus Milktoast wrote:
However, the state of the solo skiers mind is very important. You can
hang it on depression or some other clinical dioagnosis. But there are
many times when reasonably adjusted individuals are distracted by
life's problems. It can be easy to ski into trouble when you're
obsessinv about an argument you had with your SO, or about that asshole
of a boss you have. I've done this. More than once. Wrote a story about
it in fact.


Well, there's your problem. Get rid of the SO and boss. You'll be
fine, and get to ski a whole lot more. And, you'll be safer.

-klaus


  #6  
Old October 12th 05, 04:57 PM
Booker C. Bense
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----

In article ,
Ken Roberts wrote:
Booker Bense wrote
I've done lots and lots of solo skiing in steep terrain
over the years and looked at from a rational point of
view, I can't characterize it as anything but "dangerous foolishness".


I look back on my solo backcountry ski tours, and I do not see them as
"dangerous foolishness" -- at least no more so than backcountry touring
generally, in that I would have been safer for that day if I'd stayed home
and pedaled on my indoor bicycle and watched a DVD.


_ I don't think "dangerous foolishness" is always something to be
avoided. However, you should keep your eyes open so to speak. You
are engaging in something that if you should have an accident
would be characterized as "dangerous foolishness", at least in the
newspapers. In balancing risk and reward, I think it's
very easy to underestimate the risk, particularly with something
you do a lot. I do almost all my backcountry skiing alone, I find
it a useful mental tool to keep perspective.

Almost all the scary things that have happened to me on ski tours have been
with partners or groups, doing something I would not have attempted alone.
(and somehow almost always, one of those partners was a regional "expert").


_ That's been my experience as well. Turning back is a lot easier
when you're by yourself. Skiing alone has the potential to be
reasonably safe, but only if you realize that the risk is greater and the
stakes are much higher. That's what I meant by "dangerous
foolishness". The only thing keeping you safe is your judgement
and it's incredibly easy to confuse luck with skill. There's a
high potential for self delusion in all this, particularly after
you've done it a while. Pilots have a handy phrase for this that
I can't google at the moment. Basically, you're most dangerous
when you have enough experience stop overestimating the risk,
but because of your false sense of expertise you begin
underestimating the risk. I believe that I fall squarely
in this category and I think it applies to 99% of the people
that would be categorized as "experienced" in any avalanche
survey.

_ Booker C. Bense





-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: 2.6.2

iQCVAwUBQ01AbmTWTAjn5N/lAQHPSQQAjk9HPN2gUgzQt3ChzLJClujyF1H3JlIc
+8Zup29T84qTuvueUxG5770oP61XwHxwewtkC5iSwdS0/IZuJlk3Lv874nywffxo
Wgq+yBqQGlFnqd6wfEK5YhQffW9GkWqtRI6aJ95FmRRYKHZIX3 6FeEULjrKQS2vA
HG510TrmSBI=
=LpjJ
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
  #7  
Old October 12th 05, 05:08 PM
Dingus Milktoast
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


Booker C. Bense wrote:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----


Skiing alone has the potential to be
reasonably safe, but only if you realize that the risk is greater and the
stakes are much higher.


I agree the stakes may be much higher. I do not accept the greater risk
argument. Twice now in these threads others have cited evidence to the
contrary, that it is group skiing that leads to higher risk, ie more
exposure to life threatening danger. You've said so yourself and you
implied it again in this response, about how you are LESS LIKELY to ski
questionable terrain and MORE LIKELY to turn back.

How to you equate that with increased risk, I don't get it?

Cheers Booker
DMT

  #8  
Old October 12th 05, 06:10 PM
Ken Roberts
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Thanks for another careful and helpful post, Booker. Which I of course will
honor by picking at.

Booker Bense wrote:
. . . an accident would be characterized as
"dangerous foolishness", at least in the newspapers.


Yes -- though for me, rather than the newspapers, it's a more helpful
warning to think what an accident report compiled by some local backcountry
skiing experts would say about my behavior, including sometimes a decision
to solo.

Which makes me wonder, Why do not accident reports more often say things
like:

* "The victim unfortunately made the dangerously foolish decision to join a
party of size larger than 5 which had not sub-divided".

* "The victim made the dangerously foolish decision to join a group
ski-touring week with a published itinerary that listed a specific touring
objective for each day of the trip."

* "The victim made the dangerously foolish descision to join a club trip,
offered by a club that was desperate to find people willing to lead trips to
fill up its calendar."

. . . you're most dangerous when you have enough
experience stop overestimating the risk . . .


I agree, but what does that have to do with solo versus group touring?

Sometimes the group context can make that problem worse -- as the "experts"
in the group vie to demonstrate who can devise the more clever explanation
for why the obvious warning question raised by the naive newcomer does not
apply to today's planned tour.

Ken


  #9  
Old October 12th 05, 07:03 PM
Ken Roberts
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Yes but in the special case of group rescues from avalanches in the
backcountry, the amount of this additional survival probability may be a
delusion.

Kurt Knisely wrote
If you F-up w/ a group, you may have some chance of survival.


Very carefully phrased.

One book on my shelf says that the ratio of number of people who've died in
an avalanche to the number of people successfully rescued from a complete
burial is about 10 to 1.

I'm sure there's more favorable ways to look at the statistics, but it's not
unreasonable to claim that out in the backcountry, even when touring with a
group, if you get caught in a serious avalanche, you're probably going to
die.

So it's not like, "If I'm alone and get caught, I'll die unless I'm lucky,
but if I'm with a group when I get caught, I'll live unless I'm unlucky."

Ken


  #10  
Old October 12th 05, 08:07 PM
Booker C. Bense
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----

In article ,
Kurt Knisely wrote:
In article .com, Dingus
Milktoast says...

How to you equate that with increased risk, I don't get it?


Extreme Consequences. No one there to dig you out before you suffocate, help
splint a leg, light a fire, dig a shelter, go for help. Right?


_ That's what I meant. However, the avalanche risk is really not
what I was talking about. IMHO, the risks there
are about the same. It's the many other things that might only
be a good story with a group that can be life threatening alone.

The defintion of risk I use is

probablity of bad outcome x cost of bad outcome

The first doesn't change ( or doesn't get worse ) in solo travel,
but the second does.

_ Booker C. Bense


-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: 2.6.2

iQCVAwUBQ01tB2TWTAjn5N/lAQHXjgQAuSsgES0wxOqePd1pTfcIHh9utwxZRd2Y
l/88IuhUKjSDoe4oYZ/dSi9WH5EHIWfycL9AvWk9+YRuo119Dkh46OtEhZf7/WIt
YmjjC9xC8PV9XxN1hTrS5HUif3WnjhibIwomAPqmA8Ay/wD7Irq7Zszp5IgOzsnc
pqNmuTPmeHM=
=5x+Z
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
 




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Tai Chi Skiing yunlong Alpine Skiing 8 December 17th 04 04:50 PM
Masters Skiing Camps Nordic Skiing Instruction Nordic Skiing 0 November 1st 04 01:47 PM
RFC - The Nordic Skiing Project the Nordic Skiing Project Nordic Skiing 2 September 24th 04 05:50 PM
Skiing is dangerous for men ! Tom-Alex Soorhull Nordic Skiing 0 May 16th 04 07:49 AM
Near fatal ski incident Me Nordic Skiing 22 February 27th 04 02:47 PM


All times are GMT. The time now is 10:40 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2024 SkiBanter.
The comments are property of their posters.