World Cup Finals (Spoilers)

Given the lack of comment on this board (and the lack of TV coverage in the
US), I have no idea whether anyone is bothering to follow the World Cup
finals, now going on at Sestriere.

Anyway, for those who don't already know, and who care (perhaps a limited
group), the downhill was run today, and won by America's own Daron Rahlves.

Overall Cup standings now, with one each SG, GS and SL to go:
Maier 1165
Eberharter 1143 (22 back)
Miller 1098 (67 back)
Raich 1063
Rahlves 982
Palander 844

Looks to me like it still could go any of a number of ways. Maier and
Eberharter are likely to stretch their lead over Bode in tomorrow's SG, but
he still stands an outside chance of passing both in the GS and slalom. Even
if Maier wins the SG, Bode could pass him with a first and a second in the
last two races. Various easier scenarios present themselves if Maier doesn't
do well in the SG or Miller scores points in the SG. Unfortunately, Maier
has made the podium in 12 consecutive Super-Gs. And if Miller crashes, he
could fall behind Raich.

Something similar is going on in 5th place, though Rahlves' lead over
Palander is big enough that a good result in SG should put him completely
(or practically) out of reach of Palander. Palander only races technical
events, so by my figuring, a top-5 finish by Rahlves would put Palander in
the position of needing to win both the SL and GS to pass him, and a top-2
would lock Palander out entirely.

Another interesting little bit of a trivia: of the 13 Americans who
qualified for the WC finals, their home states (as listed in the news
report) are

3 Colorado

3 Washington

2 California

1 each: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont and Wyoming.

sjjohnston wrote:

Given the lack of comment on this board (and the lack of TV coverage in the
US), I have no idea whether anyone is bothering to follow the World Cup
finals, now going on at Sestriere.

Anyway, for those who don't already know, and who care (perhaps a limited
group), the downhill was run today, and won by America's own Daron Rahlves.

Overall Cup standings now, with one each SG, GS and SL to go:
Maier 1165
Eberharter 1143 (22 back)
Miller 1098 (67 back)
Raich 1063
Rahlves 982
Palander 844

Looks to me like it still could go any of a number of ways. Maier and
Eberharter are likely to stretch their lead over Bode in tomorrow's SG, but
he still stands an outside chance of passing both in the GS and slalom. Even
if Maier wins the SG, Bode could pass him with a first and a second in the
last two races. Various easier scenarios present themselves if Maier doesn't
do well in the SG or Miller scores points in the SG. Unfortunately, Maier
has made the podium in 12 consecutive Super-Gs. And if Miller crashes, he
could fall behind Raich.

Rahlves won the last Super-G, not Maier; it'd be ironic if a good
Rahlves result knocked just enough Super-G points off Miller to keep
Miller from the Overall. Maier's poor result in the DH might psych him
in the Super-G; but which way? Eberharter is the big dog here.

Anyway, Miller is skiing GS at the top of his game, and still is more or
less a Slalom specialist, in spite of two off years. I like his chances.
Do you know if there's a Combined? If so, Miller is golden, since
neither Eberharter or Maier ski SL.

Something similar is going on in 5th place, though Rahlves' lead over
Palander is big enough that a good result in SG should put him completely
(or practically) out of reach of Palander. Palander only races technical
events, so by my figuring, a top-5 finish by Rahlves would put Palander in
the position of needing to win both the SL and GS to pass him, and a top-2
would lock Palander out entirely.

Like I said, Rahlves won the last Super-G; and has been coming on toward
the end of the season (so has Miller.) Rahlves even scored points in 2
GS last month, surprising for him. He should be able to hold onto his
overall position.

sjjohnston wrote:

Another interesting little bit of a trivia: of the 13 Americans who
qualified for the WC finals, their home states (as listed in the news
report) are

3 Colorado

Lalive started out in California. Probably others are displaced, as
well. These guys are gypsies now, so home state is more or less
connected to marketing departments of sponsoring resorts.


3 Washington

2 California

1 each: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont and Wyoming.

"lal_truckee" wrote in message
...
Lalive started out in California. Probably others are displaced, as
well. These guys are gypsies now, so home state is more or less
connected to marketing departments of sponsoring resorts.

Actually, I was thinking of that when I added the qualifier "as listed in
the news reports." So at least on Colorado is really from somewhere else
(also Lindsey Kildow?). The Washingtons aren't, though. For one thing,
nobody would ever mistake Steilcoom, Cashmere or Bellevue, WA for a ski
resort.

On Wed, 10 Mar 2004 14:11:49 -0800, "sjjohnston"
wrote:

Given the lack of comment on this board (and the lack of TV coverage in the
US), I have no idea whether anyone is bothering to follow the World Cup
finals, now going on at Sestriere.

Anyway, for those who don't already know, and who care (perhaps a limited
group), the downhill was run today, and won by America's own Daron Rahlves.

Overall Cup standings now, with one each SG, GS and SL to go:
Maier 1165
Eberharter 1143 (22 back)
Miller 1098 (67 back)
Raich 1063
Rahlves 982
Palander 844

Looks to me like it still could go any of a number of ways. Maier and
Eberharter are likely to stretch their lead over Bode in tomorrow's SG, but
he still stands an outside chance of passing both in the GS and slalom. Even
if Maier wins the SG, Bode could pass him with a first and a second in the
last two races. Various easier scenarios present themselves if Maier doesn't
do well in the SG or Miller scores points in the SG. Unfortunately, Maier
has made the podium in 12 consecutive Super-Gs. And if Miller crashes, he
could fall behind Raich.

Something similar is going on in 5th place, though Rahlves' lead over
Palander is big enough that a good result in SG should put him completely
(or practically) out of reach of Palander. Palander only races technical
events, so by my figuring, a top-5 finish by Rahlves would put Palander in
the position of needing to win both the SL and GS to pass him, and a top-2
would lock Palander out entirely.


Miller's best shot to catch Maier is to score a few points tomorrow
and hope that Maier doesn't win, and then turn it on in the speed
disciplines. The course doesn't really suit either of them as it is
glider's course and they both prefer it steep and technical. My
prediction for tomorrow is that Maier manages 2nd or 3rd, and Miller
finishes out of the points.

Don't forget Raich. He's been strong in the Super-G this year and
including 4th on Sunday. With a good showing he could jump ahead of
Miller going into the technical events.

My gut feeling is that Eberharter has no chance. He's been pretty
much a one-trick pony this year with only mediocre results in SG and
GS, so he's not too likely to score enough points tomorrow to give him
much of a chance against the other three.

Here in Austria there is plenty of TV coverage. Live, few
commercials, alll races, all racers. Of course the announcers are
biased but they like Bode too!

David in Vienna

On Wed, 10 Mar 2004 15:09:38 -0800, lal_truckee
wrote:

Anyway, Miller is skiing GS at the top of his game, and still is more or
less a Slalom specialist, in spite of two off years. I like his chances.
Do you know if there's a Combined? If so, Miller is golden, since
neither Eberharter or Maier ski SL.


No combined. And to make it more interesting, only the top 15
finishers get points.

"lal_truckee" wrote in message
...

Rahlves won the last Super-G, not Maier;

(though Maier was on the podium)

it'd be ironic if a good
Rahlves result knocked just enough Super-G points off Miller to keep
Miller from the Overall. Maier's poor result in the DH might psych him
in the Super-G; but which way? Eberharter is the big dog here.

It'd be worse than ironic. But I doubt Miller will do a ton in the SG
anyway. In the World Cup final, there are no points beyond 15th. Miller
hasn't finished in the top 15 in a World Cup Super G since last season. Of
course, he's unpredictable, to say the least.

Anyway, Miller is skiing GS at the top of his game, and still is more or
less a Slalom specialist, in spite of two off years. I like his chances.
Do you know if there's a Combined? If so, Miller is golden, since
neither Eberharter or Maier ski SL.

No combined. If there were, his chances would be considerably better.

Just looking at Maier and ignoring Eberharter: here are some of the results
which would just barely give Miller the title:

Maier SG: 3rd
Miller GS/SL: 1st & 9th or 2nd & 4th

Maier SG: 1st
Miller GS/SL: 1st & 2nd

Maier SG: 8th
Miller GS/SL: 1st & nothing or 4th & 4th

Like I said, Rahlves won the last Super-G; and has been coming on toward
the end of the season (so has Miller.) Rahlves even scored points in 2
GS last month, surprising for him. He should be able to hold onto his
overall position.

Fifth overall is pretty much his I think, absent a crash or disappointing
result in the SG.

Man, did Maier do a metaphorical faceplant in thatdownhill or what.
18th place, not a single point. And, of course, he blamed it on the
skis. Because, of course, runty little Daron Rahlves couldn't
_really_ beat big manly-maan Hermann Maier in a downhill.

Maier ought to pick up a pile of points in the super G, but then, he
should have in the downhill, too. With points only going to the top
15, he won't get anything in GS or slalom. Bottom line, it's Bode's
to win or lose at this point -- neither Maier nor Eberharter has any
way to deny him.

--
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::
Mary Malmros
Some days you're the windshield,
Other days you're the bug.

On 10 Mar 2004 22:08:26 -0500, Mary Malmros wrote:


Man, did Maier do a metaphorical faceplant in thatdownhill or what.
18th place, not a single point. And, of course, he blamed it on the
skis. Because, of course, runty little Daron Rahlves couldn't
_really_ beat big manly-maan Hermann Maier in a downhill.

In Maier's defense he did ski a clean run but his skis must have been
slow because his time did not reflect it. Goes to show that
equipment is an important part of the game too.

However the course really didn't suit him (or Miller) because it was a
gliders course with few technical turns. I suspect his poor result
was a combination of the two factors. With good skis he would not
have won but he would have scored some points.


Maier ought to pick up a pile of points in the super G, but then, he
should have in the downhill, too. With points only going to the top
15, he won't get anything in GS or slalom. Bottom line, it's Bode's
to win or lose at this point -- neither Maier nor Eberharter has any
way to deny him.

Of course Benni Raich could pick up a bunch of points in the Super G
and catch up with Bode, which would make the weekend even more
interesting!