Rob, thanks for posting this. I think Ian got his days mixed up.
According to the NWS, the Hayward temp was 17F Saturday mid-evening and
continued to drop into Sunday morning. The Friday/Saturday overnight
low was 29-30, falling to ~26 at race time. The temps at Telemark were
within a degree of those (not always the case). That it didn't drop was
unexpected and commented on by some, including Justin Wadsworth in the
post under Birkie week fun. The sun did come out and warm temps into
the upper 30s during the afternoon, but it didn't hit 32 in Hayward
until close to 1 pm, which was long after the front waves had finished.
For one record of all this, see
http://www.wunderground.com/history/...lyHistory.html

I was also curious where Swix came up with its midweek prediction of 9F
overnight, which it never altered. I follow five weather sites,
including the NWS official, and the closest to that earlier in the week
saw a low of 14, the highest (AccuWeather.com) 22. I find the latter is
often very different and more accurate than the NWS.

Some of Ian's other comments, especially about the colder snow, are
accurate tho not unique. I don't know whether HelX cold turned out to be
the right call in these conditions.

Gene


Rob Bradlee wrote:

Hi gang,
Included below is Ian Harvey's official view of the Birkie. Has some
interesting ideas in it as always. Enjoy.

Rob B.

The forecast that was given over a week in advance by the National
Weather Service held up really well. Lows Friday night were about 17
and highs on race day turned out to be in the mid 30s. Snow stayed
pretty dry due to the 10-15 mile per hour wind. It had snowed Thursday
and Friday and the snow was predictably soft. There was also a dusting
of snow on race morning.

On Monday the 16th of February (the race was on the 21st) we
recommended LF Moly, HF Blue/Red mix (for elite and first wave) or HF
Red followed by HelX Cold. We also recommended fine structure.
Thankfully, this recommendation turned out to be spot on.