An exercise in handicapping
 

Hi All,

I thought it might be fun to see what finish time people estimate for
me for the upcoming Birkebeiner. Given a few marginally relavent data
points, and a some guesswork, I'll bet somebody will get pretty close.
The closest estimate gets fame, fortune, and a postcard from
Lillehammer!

Here's the data:

Male, 35 years old, 103kg, approx 5kg overweight.

Not particularly bad technique, but lots of room for improvement.

Theory that steep hills result in disproportionate penalty due to
weight/poor technique.

Theory that 3.5kg backpack is virtually insignificant for 100kg+
person.

Rode the MTB 89km version with a 6kg pack (instead of 3.5kg as
required) in 4:12. Class winners finished under 3 hours.
Ride profile:
http://birkebeiner.no/dokumenter/loy...tt2005_v11.pdf

Skied 25km Montebellol=F8pet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners
finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner.
Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif

On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A
guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another
guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27.

So, anyone feel like making a prediction?

Joseph

kirjoitti:


Male, 35 years old, 103kg, approx 5kg overweight.

So you stand a little over two meters tall?:-)

(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 =3D weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)


Not particularly bad technique, but lots of room for improvement.

Only a fool would believe otherwise...


Theory that steep hills result in disproportionate penalty due to
weight/poor technique.

OTOH if you'll be starting quite a bit from the mayhem at the front,
chances vare your pace will be dictated by the crowd and slower than
you'd perhaps like, i.e. at a pace that doesn't cost you
disproportionately.


Skied 25km Montebellol=F8pet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners
finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner.
Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif

Hmm, 2min/km slower than the winner would be about 4:30 - but can we
assume that the difference will not grow as the distance doubles?


On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A
guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another
guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27.

But we have the instant answer here, don't we? 1min on the 5km lap
equals 21min in the Birkebeineren which means you''ll finish in 5:15!


So, anyone feel like making a prediction?

If you're over 190cm tall, if you get someone to wax your skis and the
weather gods don't get nasty, you can go sub-5.

(A bonus prediction: next year you'll have a go at sub-4.)


Anders

"Anders" wrote:

(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)

Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes
with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at
80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than
reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago .

Gene

Anders wrote:
kirjoitti:


Male, 35 years old, 103kg, approx 5kg overweight.

So you stand a little over two meters tall?:-)

(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 =3D weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)

That's interesting. I am 193cm. Yet another statistic that widens the
gulf between me and elite skiers!


Not particularly bad technique, but lots of room for improvement.

Only a fool would believe otherwise...

;-)

Theory that steep hills result in disproportionate penalty due to
weight/poor technique.

OTOH if you'll be starting quite a bit from the mayhem at the front,
chances vare your pace will be dictated by the crowd and slower than
you'd perhaps like, i.e. at a pace that doesn't cost you
disproportionately.

I hadn't thought of the traffic issue. The idea that people in front of
me might be slower uphill is a foreign concept! As I am a newcomer, I
am in wave 17. So essentially everyone is going to be in front of me.


Skied 25km Montebellol=F8pet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners
finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner.
Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif

Hmm, 2min/km slower than the winner would be about 4:30 - but can we
assume that the difference will not grow as the distance doubles?

I think the longer distance works out somewhat to my advantage (or at
least not a disadvantage!). I am used to bike rides lasting 7-21 hours
(250-540km) and 4-5 hours sounds very comfortable. The 2:10 race felt
like a sprint.


On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A
guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another
guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27.

But we have the instant answer here, don't we? 1min on the 5km lap
equals 21min in the Birkebeineren which means you''ll finish in 5:15!


Short steep, vs long gradual, that's the question.

So, anyone feel like making a prediction?

If you're over 190cm tall, if you get someone to wax your skis and the
weather gods don't get nasty, you can go sub-5.

193cm, Oslo Sportslager, -6C. Sounds like a plan!

(A bonus prediction: next year you'll have a go at sub-4.)

Promise?

Joseph

Gene Goldenfeld wrote:
"Anders" wrote:

(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)

Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes
with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at
80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than
reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago .

Gene

Someone handy with Perl or similar could parse the pages he

http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/tor...=cross_country

And plot out the height:weight ratios.

Terje, feel like doing an "exercise in caching"?

Joseph

wrote:
Hi All,

I thought it might be fun to see what finish time people estimate for
me for the upcoming Birkebeiner. Given a few marginally relavent data
points, and a some guesswork, I'll bet somebody will get pretty close.
The closest estimate gets fame, fortune, and a postcard from
Lillehammer!

Before seeing this post, I had my own guess down:

4:45

Anything less than 4:30 is very impressive, the pin will usually end up
close to 4:00 or a bit below.

Skied 25km Montebelloløpet last Saturday in 2:10. Class winners
finished 1:17. Course is reportedly much steeper than Birkebeiner.

This is the only important data point, assuming it is/was classic, it
indicates a time in to 5:00 to 5:30 range.

Profile: http://www.montebellolopet.com/image...pe/profil1.gif

On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A
guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another
guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27.

This would also indicate somewhere around 5:00, depedning upon
conditions, but it is much easier to keep up the speed without proper
technique on a short loop.

Anyway, I'm staying with my original 4:45, hope you make it!

Good luck!

Terje

--
-
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)

I need to put on some weight then. 1m94/81kg right now. In mountainbiking
not an excuse to lose to anyone, but I can see I'm too skinny now to deliver
he required upper body power at racing level.

On my local loop, there is a hilly 5km that I can do in 15 minutes. A
guy I know can do it in 12. He finished the Bikebeiner in 4:12. Another
guy can do the loop in 10 minutes and had a Birken time of 3:27.
10min/5km, really? Wow. That will be quite hard to beat on a bicycle! Sure
it's a full 5km? Most pro skating races seem to get slower finish times?

Enjoy!

J

Gene Goldenfeld wrote:
"Anders" wrote:
(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)

Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes
with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at
80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than
reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago .

Top skiers have more muscle bulk to power up & down those hilly world
cup courses?

I'm 171 and have been 58.5 kg (+/- 1) since 1977.

Call it 112 which makes me a bit too skinny, even though serious rock
climbing have given me more upper body bulk than what's needed for running.

However, as an orienteer I have to lift my weight instead of gliding on
skis, I'd guess long distance runners would tend to be more skinny than
xc skiers.

Terje

--
-
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

wrote:
Gene Goldenfeld wrote:
"Anders" wrote:
(The formula "height in cm - 107-110 = weight in kg" tends to apply to
99% of elite skiers...)
Is this really true? Where does it come from? I wonder if it changes
with age. I ask because at 59 and almost 189 cm, my weight bottomed at
80.2 kg this season (lbs/2.22), which is still 3-4kg higher than
reasonably optimal and what it was two or three winters ago .

Gene

Someone handy with Perl or similar could parse the pages he

http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/tor...=cross_country

And plot out the height:weight ratios.

Terje, feel like doing an "exercise in caching"?

No caching involved, except possibly by the perl http libraries.

I took a look, the main problem is that you first need to traverse 7-8
index pages, then follow the links to all 353 athletes.

This is hard to do without being classified (and banned) as a robot by
yahoo.com :-(

Terje

PS. All the stats are in feet,inches,pounds but that just adds a bit
more uncertainty.

--
-
"almost all programming can be viewed as an exercise in caching"

Okay Joseph, maybe I started this way back by saying
about 5 hours, then revising it to closer to 4, so I'll put
my entry in as 4h29'59" (assuming it doesn't really
warm up and turn into a slush bowl).

Best, Peter